699
FXUS63 KOAX 151051
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
551 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures are expected to remain above-normal through the
  work week with highs in the 80s.

- Nightly low-end chances for showers and thunderstorms (20
  percent) will move into eastern Nebraska Sunday and Monday
  night. Most of the area will stay dry.

- Periodic chances for more widespread showers and
  thunderstorms move into the area Tuesday night and continue
  into early next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Short Range (Today and Monday)

As of 1:30 AM, ongoing showers and thunderstorms are moving across
north-central Nebraska, forced by a moist low level jet. The bulk of
the storms should pass through Knox county, leaving 35 percent PoPs
across our far northwestern counties before tapering off early this
morning. Another morning of fog development is possible, though
winds increase to 15-25 kts above the surface. This will restrict
any fog to remaining patchy. The day will break to mostly clear
skies and highs in upper 80s. Another day of strong southerly winds
will continue this steak of highs 5 to 10 degrees above the
climatological average. A weak shortwave pushing across central
Nebraska Sunday night will bring another chance for showers and
storms. The better forcing will remain in central Nebraska, PoPs
remain near 25 percent for our western counties into Monday morning.

By the start of the work week, an upper level trough will continue
to build across the western CONUS and bring increasingly
southwesterly flow to the area. Monday will bring another day with
highs in the mid to upper 80s before another low-end overnight
precipitation chance. Similar to the previous night, the better
forcing remains over central Nebraska, though 20 percent PoPs remain
over our western counties.

Long Range (Tuesday and Beyond)

Above average highs (mid 80s) will continue through the work week as
we move into a more active pattern. The aforementioned upper level
trough will progress eastward with the trough axis situated over the
Rocky Mountains by late Tuesday/early Wednesday. This will bring
periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms. A surface cold front
pushing through Tuesday night into Wednesday will bring PoPs of 55
to 75 percent to much of the area. Thursday and Friday will bring
additional precipitation chances (PoPs 30 to 60 percent) as
shortwave features traverse the area.

Better forcing will also arrive during the latter half of the work
week, bringing some low-end severe weather potential. There is still
plenty of time to work out the details of this possibility. The CSU
Machine Learning guidance begins to highlight eastern Nebraska for
severe weather potential (5 percent) Wednesday through Friday. A
cold front pushing through early Saturday looks to drop next
weekends highs into the low to mid 70`s. This front will also bring
60 percent PoPs to much of the area into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 551 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Expect some fog early in the period, though strong winds aloft
should keep it quite patchy, so did not include mention at TAF
sites for now. Otherwise, VFR conditions are favored through
most of the period with some clouds around 6000 ft by this
afternoon. Winds will be out of the south to southeast, gusting
to 18 kts at times today. Guidance hints at patchy fog toward
the end of the TAF period, but confidence in impacts to TAF
sites is once again too low to include mention.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...CA