Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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372 FXUS63 KOAX 150442 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1142 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above-normal temperatures expected to persist through at least next week with highs in the 80s. - Most likely dry through Monday, then periodic chances for thunderstorms starting Monday night. Highest chances appear to be Wednesday through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 146 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 This afternoon - Sunday: Clouds are hanging over the area this afternoon and will be slow to clear. This will help keep temperatures mild, with highs only in the upper 70s to low 80s this afternoon. A boundary producing a few storms over central Nebraska will remain to our west through tomorrow. Southerly winds and less cloud cover will allow temperatures to rise back into the mid-to-upper 80s during the afternoon. Monday - Friday: The boundary producing scattered storms in central Nebraska has developed in a region that will see increased diffluent flow going into Monday. This region will shift east into our western counties for a 15-20% chance of storms Monday morning. The diffluent flow starts to fall apart, lowering storm chances by Monday afternoon with the ridging subtropical jet pushing north into the area. The upper-level pattern going through the rest of the week looks very unsettled with a large upper-level trough over the Intermountain West, amplifying southwesterly flow starting on Tuesday. This will mean daily chances for showers and storms. Later in the week on Thursday we see the merger of the subtropical and polar jets which may improve dynamic forcing for a chance of some stronger, more widespread storm chances Thursday and Friday. To wrap it up, temperatures will stay above normal next week with highs in the 80s to near 90 at times. We`ll have daily chances for storms, with greater chances Wednesday - Friday. This stormy pattern looks to continue into the weekend && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 VFR conditions persist through the TAF period. SE winds pick up speed by lunch on Sunday with gusts up to 20 knots. New tonight is the cluster of storms that has developed northwest of KOFK. Expect these storms to fizzle overnight. Seems about a 10% chance of these storms affect the OFK aerodrome. It has not been included in the 06Z TAF issuance. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...McCoy AVIATION...Nicolaisen