352
FXUS64 KOHX 041711
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1211 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1133 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

A long wave trough is setting up over the Central US with the
trough axis over North Dakota. This will push a few short waves
over us today and will bring periods of scattered showers and
thunderstorms. The first round of thunderstorms is making it`s way
through the area. Overall it has been mainly showers but we are
starting to see a few more thunderstorms pop up. This trend Will
continue as it pushes east. Additional showers and thunderstorms
may develop behind that line during the afternoon. Then it looks
like we will get a break for a time in the evening before more
scattered activity pushes in overnight. Meso-Analysis shows
500-1000 j/kg of MLCAPE over the area and that will remain in
place into the evening. Lapse rates are not great and 0-6 km shear
is on the low side, overall the threat for strong storms is low
but still can`t rule out an isolated storm or two with gusty winds
and some hail. With PWATs above 1.70" heavy rain and possibly
some flash flooding will be the main concern with any convection.

The upper level trough will push east into the Great Lakes on
Wednesday pushing a cold front into our region. We`ll see
scattered activity in the morning as higher moisture advects into
the area. CAMs are not overly excited with the forcing with the
front but scattered showers and thunderstorms will be likely along
and ahead of it for the afternoon and early evening. We do see an
increase in 0-6 km shear pushing above 20 knots but lapse rates
remain poor and soundings are on the saturated side. This will
keep strong to severe thunderstorm chances low but similar to
today, can`t rule out isolated gusty winds or some hail with any
stronger cells. PWATs will remain very high above 1.70" keeping
the heavy rain and possible flash flooding the main concern with
convection. Highs today and tomorrow will be in the mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1133 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will be diminishing Wednesday night as
the front works east through the area. Drier air will build in
throughout the day on Thursday but it will remain warm with highs
in the mid to upper 80s. Then we will see some great weather late
week into the weekend as troughing sets up over the Northeast and
strong ridging builds over the West. That will bring comfortable
dew points, dry weather, and highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. Dew
points come up just a bit Sunday into next week and we start to
see some instability return to the area. There won`t be much in
the way of forcing but maybe a few pop up afternoon thunderstorms
will be possible. Highs will remain in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Shwrs slowly move in from SW. Uncertainties at terminal locations
per shwrs areal coverage, confidence not there to mention prevailing,
but certainly not rule in vcnty. Upper level distrubance moving W
to E 04/12Z-04/21Z should enhance tstm chances. Mentioned best 2
hr window for coverage terminals. Another round of tstms around
05/09Z-05/12Z and took same approach. MVFR/IFR vsbys best 2 hr
window for tstms. VFR ceiling prevail thru 04/06Z, MVFR ceilings

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      85  71  85  70 /  70  70  90  30
Clarksville    83  70  83  66 /  60  70  90  20
Crossville     79  64  79  64 /  70  50  80  70
Columbia       84  69  84  67 /  80  60  80  40
Cookeville     81  67  81  67 /  70  60  90  60
Jamestown      81  65  80  65 /  70  60  90  70
Lawrenceburg   83  69  83  67 /  80  60  80  50
Murfreesboro   84  68  85  67 /  80  70  90  40
Waverly        83  69  83  66 /  60  70  90  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mueller
LONG TERM....Mueller
AVIATION.....JB Wright