458
FXUS64 KOHX 051520
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1020 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1007 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

The morning sounding from OHX is rather underwhelming. There is
some instability, but not a great deal. The surface-based CAPE is
just 333 J/kg, with a Lifted Index of -2, and the 700-500 mb lapse
rate is a measly 5.2 C/km. The column is nearly saturated all the
way up, and without any sort of dry layer aloft, we just aren`t
getting steep enough lapse rates to produce any meaningful
instability. The 0-3 km helicity is 136, but this is due mostly to
speed shear. There is very little directional shear present. The
Precipitable Water is a robust 1.77", which gives us a PWAT+ value
of 148 (observed PWAT is 148% of the daily mean value), and puts
us well above the 90th percentile for June 5. Anyway, once this
initial line of showers passes through Middle Tennessee, the HRRR
shows very little activity until later tonight with the passage of
the actual surface boundary. After that, nothing.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1007 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

High pressure will keep us mostly sunny and less humid through
Friday. What looked to be a sunny weekend not so long ago is now
looking like a rainy one, especially Sunday. On Saturday, a weak
shortwave will bring some additional cloudiness with low rain
chances to Middle Tennessee. And on Sunday, an east-west oriented
surface boundary will sag southward through the mid state and
bring even better rain chances. Fortunately, QPF values on
Saturday and Sunday are very low. In other words, these will be
nuisance showers rather than washouts. As a result of tonight`s
frontal passage, temperatures will cool off several degrees
beginning Thursday night and Friday, with relatively cool weather
lasting at least until the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 537 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Two rounds of SHRA with VCTS will spread across airports this
TAF period, first this morning/afternoon then again this
evening/overnight. VFR conditions will prevail but MVFR cigs are
expected for a few hours this morning, then MVFR/IFR vis/cigs at
SRB/CSV at the end of the TAF period. South winds will increase
during the day with gusts to around 20 knots, then decrease and
veer to westerly by the end of the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      85  68  87  62 /  70  60  10   0
Clarksville    81  64  85  59 /  70  40   0   0
Crossville     79  63  80  55 /  80  80  40   0
Columbia       84  67  87  60 /  70  60  10   0
Cookeville     81  66  82  57 /  80  80  30   0
Jamestown      80  64  80  56 /  80  80  40  10
Lawrenceburg   84  67  86  60 /  70  60  10   0
Murfreesboro   85  66  87  59 /  70  70  20   0
Waverly        81  65  85  59 /  70  50   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Shamburger