545
FXUS64 KOHX 040556
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1256 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 853 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

The storm activity from this afternoon has dissipated with only a
couple areas of light rain remaining. Some isolated spots such as
Inglewood in the metro area and Collinwood in Wayne County had
rainfall amounts exceeding 3". Any water remaining out of the
creek banks will quickly fall in the next hour or two. For the
remainder of tonight the area should be dry for the most part.
Some shower activity west of I-65 will be possible closer to dawn.
In addition, there could be some patchy fog through the early
morning hours. More scattered showers and storms are expected on
Tuesday. No major changes were made to the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Upper level ridge is sitting off to our north with zonal flow
setting up over us. Overall we will see quiet weather today but a
short wave to our west will push east into our area. This will be
enough to kick off a few scattered showers and thunderstorms after
20z mainly to the west of I-65. We will have quite a bit of CAPE
around but with little to no wind shear and poor lapse rates
strong storms are not expected. With PWATs above 1.50" heavy rain
can be expected with any convection. Any thunderstorm activity
that develop should die down quickly as sunset approaches. Highs
this afternoon will be warm in the mid 80s to near 90.

Much of the overnight will be dry but a decaying thunderstorm
complex will push east into our area by daybreak as an MCV. This
will give us some forcing and may kick off a few showers and
thunderstorms in the morning. The MCV will linger over the area
into the afternoon and will bring an increased chance for
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Soundings once again show
quite a bit of CAPE but overall shear will be low and lapse rates
will be poor. This will limit the potential for strong storms.
PWATs remain high and heavy rain can be expected with any
thunderstorms. With the cloud cover on Tuesday daytime highs will
be a bit cooler in the mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Upper level trough will be pushing out of the northern Rockies
into the Great Lakes on Wednesday. This will push a cold front
into our area. Warm air advection and increase in moisture Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning will bring the chance for a few
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Thunderstorm chances will
increase late morning into the afternoon as the cold front
approaches the area. Thunderstorm chances diminish during the
evening and overnight. 0-6 km shear does increase some on
Wednesday pushing above 20 knots and mid-level lapse rates
increase some also. This will give us a chance to see isolated
stronger storms in the afternoon. Gusty winds and heavy rain will
be the main threats with anything stronger but some hail will also
be possible.

The front will linger over the area on Thursday and could bring a
few thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon over the
Plateau. Highs on Wednesday will be in the mid 80s and they will
be a bit warmer on Thursday in the mid to upper 80s. Dew points
will push above 70 on Wednesday but drier air will gradually
filter in on Thursday. The end of the week into the weekend is
looking great with strong ridging to our west and troughing over
the Northeast. This will bring comfortable dew points and highs
in the 70s to low 80s. Higher dew points will start to creep back
in Sunday into next week along with some instability. Won`t see
much forcing but with the CAPE back we could see a few pop up
afternoon thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1256 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Shwrs slowly move in from SW, spreading NEWD across area by
04/15Z. Uncertainties at terminal locations per shwrs areal
coverage, confidence not there to mention prevailing, but
certainly not rule in vcnty. Upper level distrubance moving W to
E 04/12Z-04/21Z should enhance tstm chances. Mentioned best 2 hr
window for coverage terminals. MVFR/IFR fog vsbys SRB/CSV thru
04/10Z with MVFR vsbys best 2 hr window for tstms. VFR ceiling
prevail thru 04/06Z. Sustained S winds 5-10kts thru 04/06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      85  71  84  68 /  80  70  70  40
Clarksville    83  71  81  65 /  70  70  70  20
Crossville     78  64  78  64 /  80  60  90  80
Columbia       84  69  84  67 /  80  70  70  40
Cookeville     81  66  79  66 /  80  60  90  70
Jamestown      80  65  79  64 /  80  60  80  70
Lawrenceburg   83  68  83  68 /  80  70  60  50
Murfreesboro   85  68  84  67 /  80  70  80  50
Waverly        83  68  81  65 /  70  70  90  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Reagan
SHORT TERM...Mueller
LONG TERM....Mueller
AVIATION.....JB Wright