359
FXUS64 KOHX 061722
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1222 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday night)
Issued at 1115044 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

After a very warm and humid Thursday, passage of a late day cold
front will bring cooler and less humid conditions. Friday will be
an excellent day with sunny skies, slightly below normal temps, reasonable
humidity levels, and a northwest breeze. Surface high pressure
will be located directly over the area and this high center will
keep conditions very nice through Friday night as well.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1044 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

This weekend, we will be under northwest flow aloft. A series of
disturbances / weakening MCSs will come our way. The first of
these systems will approach on Saturday. This wave is expected to
dissipate as it moves into relatively dry and stable air across
our area, but some models do show a few remnant scattered showers
making it into northwest Middle Tennessee. Based on our latest
official model blend, we can expect patchy cloudiness but a mainly
rain-free Saturday. Temps will be seasonably warm Saturday but
humidity levels will remain reasonable.

We will see more significant rain and thunderstorm chances late
Saturday night through Sunday morning with a decaying MCS and a
cold front. Thankfully, we are not expecting severe wx with these
systems as atmospheric conditions continue to look stable.
Also, we are not looking for any flooding with average expected
rainfall amounts from one quarter to one half inch. Although the
main batch of rain and thunder is expected Sunday morning,
scattered showers and storms will be possible Sunday afternoon as
well until a cold front drops completely across the area. This
Sunday evening cold front will usher in another shot of cooler
than normal air with low rain chances for Monday and Tuesday.

For those looking for a break from the rainy pattern, the
extended outlooks from CPC show a cooler and drier than normal
pattern across the region early next week, transitioning to a warm
but still dry pattern mid and late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

The last of the showers will continue to push east out of middle
TN. Lower clouds have hung around longer at KCSV/KSRB...expect
these to clear at 18Z as seeing breaks in the satellite imagery.
West to northwest winds with gusts to 15 to 20 kt this afternoon
will become light and more northerly overnight.

Overnight there is a very small chance there could be some lower
clouds /MVFR/ over the plateau for KCSV and KSRB but confidence is
not there to include in the TAF. Will continue to watch for this
development in the later TAF issuances.

NW/N winds will pick up after 16Z with gusts to 15 kts. Otherwise
some high clouds will be around.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      63  84  62  86 /   0   0   0  10
Clarksville    59  82  61  83 /   0   0  10  10
Crossville     55  76  53  78 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia       60  84  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     57  77  56  79 /   0   0   0  10
Jamestown      55  76  54  77 /   0   0   0  10
Lawrenceburg   60  82  58  84 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   60  84  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        59  83  60  84 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....12