041
FXUS64 KOHX 171759
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1259 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1058 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Not a half bad day out there. Both temperatures and dew points are
relatively cool. The Plateau wins for being the coolest with many
spots still in the low 60s as we approach the noon hour. This is
directly related to the upper level low centered over the TN/GA/NC
triple point. Clouds associated with this system continue to stream
over our far eastern counties and there were even a couple of
pavement wetters on the Upper Cumberland a few hours ago. At this
point, if anyone does see light rain over there, it`ll barely be
measurable. Similar conditions are likely tomorrow as this upper
system will be slow to pull away from Middle TN.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1058 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

As we get into Thursday and the upper low moves into the mid-
Atlantic seaboard region, upper ridging will replace it across the
mid-Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. That means dry conditions
will continue across the mid-state and temperatures will begin to
respond. By Friday and Saturday, afternoon highs will climb into
the low 90s for the western 2/3 of the area. However, northerly
boundary layer flow will keep dew points in the upper 50s and low
60s, so we`ve got several really nice days ahead.

"When are we gonna get some darn rain?", asks the drought-stricken
areas of Middle TN. Unfortunately, my answer is the same as it`s
been lately -- not for awhile. It could be the middle of next week
before any appreciable rainfall returns to the area. That means
worsening drought conditions for everyone. Everyone except that guy
in Lawrence County who got 8+ inches of rain last weekend from
Francine.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Low clouds continue to stream into eastern terminals today. Light
fog has developed at CSV thanks to the late morning showers, but
visibilities should improve over the next hour or two. Any
precipitation is very light and scattered, so additional impacts
to terminals aren`t expected at this time. BNA, MQY, SRB, and CSV
will likely see cigs fall to IFR heights overnight. These sites
also have the best chance of fog development and reduced
visibilities early Wednesday morning. CKV should remain just
outside the area of low clouds and drier air over northwest Middle
TN gives that area a lower likelihood of fog development.

Winds will remain northeasterly or northerly with a few gusts to
around 15 knots today, but becoming light overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      65  88  66  90 /  10  10   0   0
Clarksville    61  88  63  90 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     58  79  58  83 /  10  20   0   0
Columbia       61  87  62  90 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     60  80  62  84 /  10  20   0   0
Jamestown      60  78  60  83 /  10  20   0   0
Lawrenceburg   60  85  62  89 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   62  87  63  90 /  10  10   0   0
Waverly        61  87  62  89 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Whitehead