Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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829 FXUS64 KOHX 152316 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 616 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 613 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Radar this evening shows a few showers continue across the midstate, mainly in the south. Have lowered pops the rest of the evening based on radar trends and the latest HRRR. Overnight, cooler and drier air will advect in from the east, which should lead to patchy fog formation as dewpoint depressions fall to near zero. Lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s still appear reasonable, and rest of forecast remains on track with only minor tweaks. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through tonight) Issued at 1130 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 The band of showers (Francine remnants) that was focused over our southwest counties the past couple of days has shifted farther southwest today as dry air has pushed in from the north and east. Still, there will be just enough moisture and instability for a few showers or brief thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening for areas along and southwest of I-24. Any storm impacts should be brief with coverage mostly in the 20 to 30 percent range. Otherwise the rest of the day will be partly to mostly sunny with warm temperatures in the 80s. Any showers or isolated storms will dissipate quickly this evening. Late night may bring some patchy fog as most areas dip to the lower 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Sunday) Issued at 1130 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 The rest of this week looks dry with pleasant nights and warm days. A strong ridge over the Great Lakes and New England will push dry and stable air into the area for the start of the week. Later in the week, another ridge from our southwest will spread across the region. This pattern will block us off from any significant wet weather systems. One of those systems will be a low pressure system along the east coast that could become a tropical low. Most models keep the impacts form this system out of our area. The GFS tracks more to the west, but the GFS is considered an outlier. Even with a western drift, odds are very low for any meaningful rainfall in our coverage area. At this point, we do have some 10-20 percent shower chances along the Plateau midweek. Otherwise, dry through the week. Clear nights and mostly sunny days will be in the forecast across Middle Tennessee this week. Dry air will allow temps to drop to comfortable levels at night with near normal lows. A few patches of shallow fog will be possible each night, mainly along lakes and rivers and in valleys. The sunny days will be warm with highs running a few degrees above normal throughout the week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 While storms are possible in Middle TN in the 19Z/Sun-00Z/Mon time frame, confidence and coverage is too low to prevail at this time. Will handle with amendments this afternoon as needed. Winds will be out of the east with a occasional gust of 13-15 kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 65 89 62 86 / 20 0 0 0 Clarksville 64 88 59 86 / 20 0 0 0 Crossville 57 83 55 79 / 0 0 10 10 Columbia 62 88 60 86 / 20 10 0 0 Cookeville 61 83 57 80 / 0 0 0 10 Jamestown 59 82 55 76 / 0 0 10 10 Lawrenceburg 62 87 59 85 / 20 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 63 88 60 86 / 20 0 0 0 Waverly 64 87 60 86 / 20 10 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Shamburger SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION.....Unger