254
FXUS64 KOHX 220557 AAC
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1257 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 903 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

The earlier convection has diminished. Temps have cooled into the
70s at most locations. Dewpoint spreads are in the 4-8F range with
partial cloudiness in place. For the rest of tonight will likely
see some patchy fog development late. The low temperature forecast
of 65F-70F still looks good.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1126 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Water vapor imagery this morning shows an upper-level high
pressure centered over eastern TX. With Middle TN mainly under the
influence of ridging from this high, temperatures through this
weekend will remain hot in the upper-80s into the low-90s. But
with the center of this high well to our south and an embedded
shortwave rounding the periphery of the high, isolated showers are
possible through this afternoon and then again on Sunday,
especially near the TN/KY border. Any showers will be hit-and-
miss, and with our dry atmosphere, any rainfall will be light and
less than a tenth of an inch.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1126 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

The high to our south gets suppressed starting Monday as a trough
tracks through the Plains. This will increase our rain chances
Monday, but best rain chances of the week so far look to be on
Tuesday as a weak cold front tracks through the area. But before
you get excited, rain amounts are still underwhelming and
generally less than a quarter of an inch through Tuesday. But good
news is that temperatures will fall behind the front and feel more
seasonable with highs falling in the upper-70s to mid-80s.

Models diverge significantly Wednesday and beyond, and confidence
is very low regarding the forecast from here. Model solutions are
generally in two different camps. The deterministic GFS as well as
its ensemble members show a deep trough extending from the Great
Lakes region. But the ENS and GEPS ensemble members are favoring
more of a ridging pattern. The GFS`s solution favors a wetter
pattern while the other favors a drier pattern. Unfortunately, the
drier pattern looks to be more likely at this point with about
60% of ensemble members favoring the ridging. But have continued
the low precipitation chances (15 to 25 percent) Wednesday and
beyond to account for this uncertainty. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

VFR Conditions expected for the next few hours before some
possible MVFR (and maybe even IFR) fog develops. Uncertainty
continues with the extent and area of this developing fog, but
think the best chances are across areas which experienced rain
Saturday afternoon as well as KCSV and KSRB. VFR returns after
12Z with the main concern being the timing and coverage of any
TSRA/VCTS this afternoon. Too uncertain to pinpoint specific
time/location, so carried VCTS for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      93  71  90  70 /  30  20  40  30
Clarksville    90  69  87  67 /  30  30  50  60
Crossville     87  64  85  63 /  30  10  60  20
Columbia       92  68  91  68 /  20  10  30  20
Cookeville     88  66  86  66 /  30  10  50  30
Jamestown      87  65  84  64 /  30  20  60  30
Lawrenceburg   91  67  90  68 /  20  10  30  20
Murfreesboro   93  69  92  69 /  30  10  40  20
Waverly        90  69  89  67 /  20  20  40  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......21
SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....Hurley