Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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486 FXUS64 KOHX 130518 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1218 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 900 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Tweaked hourly temperature, dewpoint, sky condition, and wind direction/wind speed grids blending them with associated previously forecasted hourly late evening gridded values. Per analysis of current regional satellite imagery and latest HRRR sky cover forecast through tonight, slightly decreased cloud coverage from generally partly cloudy skies to mostly clear skies remainder of evening hours tonight. Current regional temperature trends in line with forecasted overnight lows. KOHX 13/00Z Sounding showing despite warmup today, PWAT values are still only 0.77 inch which is in the 10 percentile range for PWAT values for today with riding influences surface and aloft prevailing. Remainder of forecast continues to be on track. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1026 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 A surface ridge is aligned just south of the Ohio Valley this morning, leaving Middle Tennessee with a dry, stable atmosphere. The ridge will gradually slide across the region during the next couple of days and we can expect summer-like heat to build over the mid state as a result. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1026 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 The forecast is rain-free through Sunday night. Of particular note is Sunday, when afternoon temperatures are expected to top out near 100 degrees, but we do expect enough moisture advection to lead to additional cloudiness and low POP`s beginning on Monday, and also slightly cooler temperatures. Perhaps "not as hot" would be more accurate, as the 6-10 day and 8-14 outlooks continue to favor above normal temperatures for Middle Tennessee. QPF totals for days 6-8 (nothing prior to day 6) are coming in under 1/4" across most of the mid state. So the rainy pattern that persisted throughout May and the first week of June has definitely shifted. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 VFR conditions through the TAF period. Some patchy fog will be possible until 12z in the vicinity of KSRB and may bring MVFR/IFR conditions at times. FEW to SCT 050 clouds develop for eastern terminals after 16z tomorrow. Light winds under 5 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 93 68 95 70 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 89 64 91 68 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 85 63 87 64 / 0 0 0 0 Columbia 92 65 94 69 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 87 65 89 67 / 0 0 0 0 Jamestown 86 63 87 64 / 0 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 91 65 93 69 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 93 65 95 69 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 89 64 92 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......JB Wright SHORT TERM...Rose LONG TERM....Rose AVIATION.....Mueller