117
FXUS64 KOHX 171601
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1101 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1058 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Not a half bad day out there. Both temperatures and dew points are
relatively cool. The Plateau wins for being the coolest with many
spots still in the low 60s as we approach the noon hour. This is
directly related to the upper level low centered over the TN/GA/NC
triple point. Clouds associated with this system continue to stream
over our far eastern counties and there were even a couple of
pavement wetters on the Upper Cumberland a few hours ago. At this
point, if anyone does see light rain over there, it`ll barely be
measurable. Similar conditions are likely tomorrow as this upper
system will be slow to pull away from Middle TN.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1058 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

As we get into Thursday and the upper low moves into the mid-
Atlantic seaboard region, upper ridging will replace it across the
mid-Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. That means dry conditions
will continue across the mid-state and temperatures will begin to
respond. By Friday and Saturday, afternoon highs will climb into
the low 90s for the western 2/3 of the area. However, northerly
boundary layer flow will keep dew points in the upper 50s and low
60s, so we`ve got several really nice days ahead.

"When are we gonna get some darn rain?", asks the drought-stricken
areas of Middle TN. Unfortunately, my answer is the same as it`s
been lately -- not for awhile. It could be the middle of next week
before any appreciable rainfall returns to the area. That means
worsening drought conditions for everyone. Everyone except that guy
in Lawrence County who got 8+ inches of rain last weekend from
Francine.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

MVFR CIGs are moving into E TN and will likely impact CSV/SRB
through the day today. BNA/MQY/CKV, should remain VFR through the
afternoon with some high level clouds streaming overhead. Through
the morning and early afternoon, light showers are possible across
the Upper Cumberland. Winds will be out of the N/NNE. Tonight,
IFR CIGs and VIS are likely across the Upper Cumberland including
SRB/CSV. BNA and MQY could see some periods of MVFR CIGs late
tonight as well, but confidence is lower with some uncertainty on
how far W the lowest CIGs will push west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      84  65  88  66 /  10  10  10   0
Clarksville    85  61  88  63 /  10   0   0   0
Crossville     72  58  79  58 /  40  10  20   0
Columbia       85  61  87  62 /  10   0   0   0
Cookeville     77  60  80  62 /  20  10  20   0
Jamestown      71  60  78  60 /  50  10  20   0
Lawrenceburg   84  60  85  62 /  10   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   84  62  87  63 /  10  10  10   0
Waverly        86  61  87  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Cravens