261
FXUS64 KOHX 211651
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1151 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1126 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Water vapor imagery this morning shows an upper-level high
pressure centered over eastern TX. With Middle TN mainly under the
influence of ridging from this high, temperatures through this
weekend will remain hot in the upper-80s into the low-90s. But
with the center of this high well to our south and an embedded
shortwave rounding the periphery of the high, isolated showers are
possible through this afternoon and then again on Sunday,
especially near the TN/KY border. Any showers will be hit-and-
miss, and with our dry atmosphere, any rainfall will be light and
less than a tenth of an inch.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1126 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

The high to our south gets suppressed starting Monday as a trough
tracks through the Plains. This will increase our rain chances
Monday, but best rain chances of the week so far look to be on
Tuesday as a weak cold front tracks through the area. But before
you get excited, rain amounts are still underwhelming and
generally less than a quarter of an inch through Tuesday. But good
news is that temperatures will fall behind the front and feel more
seasonable with highs falling in the upper-70s to mid-80s.

Models diverge significantly Wednesday and beyond, and confidence
is very low regarding the forecast from here. Model solutions are
generally in two different camps. The deterministic GFS as well as
its ensemble members show a deep trough extending from the Great
Lakes region. But the ENS and GEPS ensemble members are favoring
more of a ridging pattern. The GFS`s solution favors a wetter
pattern while the other favors a drier pattern. Unfortunately, the
drier pattern looks to be more likely at this point with about
60% of ensemble members favoring the ridging. But have continued
the low precipitation chances (15 to 25 percent) Wednesday and
beyond to account for this uncertainty. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

For BNA...a few showers are trying to approach from the northwest,
but they are weakening and unlikely to reach the terminal.
Otherwise, anticipate some high cirrus throughout the day with
light west/southwest winds.

For all other TAF sites, VFR conditions are expected over the next
24 hours. Little to no fog has formed so the window of potential
fog impacts as closed. Light west/southwest winds are forecast
during the day today, dropping off once again this evening. A
shower/storm approached KCKV earlier, but those have since
weakened and diminished with no additional activity currently
moving toward the site. All other sites should remain
precipitation free.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      94  72  93  71 /  20  10  20  20
Clarksville    92  71  91  69 /  20  20  30  20
Crossville     88  63  86  64 /  10  10  20  30
Columbia       92  69  92  68 /  10  10  20  10
Cookeville     89  66  88  67 /  10  10  20  20
Jamestown      87  65  86  66 /  10   0  30  30
Lawrenceburg   92  68  92  68 /  10  10  10  10
Murfreesboro   94  69  93  69 /  10  20  20  20
Waverly        90  69  91  69 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....Husted