506
FXUS64 KOHX 210529
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1229 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 851 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Regional radar mosiac imagery showing no convection across mid
state region presently. Latest CAMs showing no convection
potential across mid state region remainder of tonight. Thus
removed previous mention of isolated evening pops. Current
temperature trends generally are in line with forecasted lows.
Tweaked hourly temperature, dewpoint, and wind speed/direction
grids blending them with previously forecasted associated hourly
late evening gridded values. Remainder of forecast continues to
be on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tonight)
Issued at 1124 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Another relatively quiet day is underway across Middle TN.
Temperatures around the area area already well into the upper 70s
and some have crossed into the low 80s. If we apply the old addage
of 10 at 10, meaning add 10 degrees to the current temperature at 10
am and that`ll be your high for today, that means the current
forecast is a couple of degrees low. So, we may actually see a few
low 90s across the mid-state this afternoon. Records should be safe
as today`s record at BNA is 92 set in 2018, but if we reach 90
today, it`ll be the first time this calendar year, but the first
time since September 26th of last year. One more nugget: we hit 90
for the first time last year on May 15th.

We`re already starting to see some cu field develop, especially east
of I-65 and while we don`t have any PoP in the forecast, after
looking over a few things this morning, I have to throw in a 20 PoP
this afternoon and evening along and east of I-65. This morning`s
12Z sounding here at OHX showed a strong inversion at 700 mb, which
is high enough to allow a couple of pinhead showers to develop
within these cu fields, but just in case that inversion erodes over
the Plateau, I`ve thrown in a mention of thunder. Shear is non-
existent, so anything that shows up on radar will likely be very
short-lived, but these tiny rain chances could last into the early
evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1124 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Tuesday will be much of the same, minus the pinhead rain chances.
However, Wednesday looks to the beginning of yet another period of
unsettled weather. Latest extended CAMs just creep into Wednesday
morning and are already showing showers and a few storms crossing
the TN River at daybreak. This may be a situation where we see
morning showers/storms, then a late morning break before additional
afternoon and evening storm chances develop. The good news is, at
this point, forecast soundings are unimpressive Wednesday for most
of Middle TN. We are able to work about 1000 J/Kg into our northwest
quadrant during the afternoon and about 70% of ensemble suggest 30
kts of shear or better as a weak front approaches from the west
Wednesday evening. That would suggest the potential for a couple of
strong storms closer to the TN River, but shear falls off closer to
the I-65 corridor. This would coincide well with the current SPC
outlook Wednesday.

Thursday through Memorial Day looks like multiple rounds of showers
and thunderstorms as Wednesday night`s weak front hangs around
the region. I don`t see one day with a particular stronger storm
threat over the next, but with multiple rounds of storms passing
through the area and PWs remaining well above seasonal norms,
rainfall totals could start to add up by the end of the weekend.
Again, while there isn`t any pointed severe threat over the
holiday weekend at this point, there is at least a low-end shot at
some cumulative flooding by Monday, so check back throughout the
week for the latest.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

VFR conditions continue this taf cycle. Winds will stay on the
lighter side overnight, generally less than 5 kts out of the
south. They will pick up tomorrow after 18Z to 5-10 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      90  68  88  69 /   0  10  20  50
Clarksville    88  68  84  67 /   0  20  40  70
Crossville     82  63  81  64 /  10   0  10  20
Columbia       88  67  87  67 /   0   0  20  40
Cookeville     84  65  82  66 /  10   0  10  30
Jamestown      83  63  81  64 /  10   0  10  30
Lawrenceburg   87  66  86  67 /   0   0  10  30
Murfreesboro   88  66  87  67 /   0   0  10  30
Waverly        89  68  85  66 /   0  20  30  60

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......JB Wright
SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Baggett