Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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806 FXUS64 KOHX 190235 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 935 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 931 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Warm and humid evening across Middle Tennessee with current temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Main forecast issue for tonight will be fog, as skies have mostly cleared across the midstate and dewpoints depressions are already 5 degrees or less across our south and east. Therefore fairly widespread fog is likely overnight, especially in our southern and eastern counties, and it could be dense in some areas. Rest of forecast remains on track with no major changes. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1142 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Despite a continuance of low cloud coverage across a good portion of mid state region, latest suite of forecast model runs showing depth of current moisture eroding slowly as afternoon through nighttime hours progress. Will continue with current high temperature forecast for today as current regional temperature trends continue to support forecasted afternoon high temperature values. Tonight lows will be on seasonably warm side ranging generally low to mid 60s, around 60 Cumberland Plateau Region. With light and variable winds becoming predominate after midnight tonight, patchy to areas of fog formation being possible lasting thru the early morning hours across our area. Look for strong upper level ridging influences to build in from our west especially as Thursday progresses. High temperatures will be more like typical summertime normals, ranging upper 80s to lower 90s, mid 80s for locations just west of and across Cumberland Plateau Region under generally mostly clear skies. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1142 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Upper level ridging influences will be dominant weather player through upcoming weekend with atmospheric low level ridging influences also continuing. Thus dry conditions will also continue to prevail. This enhancing warm air advection scenario means that high temperatures could reach into low to mid 90s, upper 80s to around 90 for locations just west of and across Cumberland Plateau Region with seasonably mild lows spanning the 60s this weekend. Good thing is that afternoon humidity values will only span the 40s so maximum afternoon heat index values will be at or even slightly lower than forecasted max temperatures. Look for upper level troughing influences to become more enhanced bisecting northeast to southwest across central CONUS as next Monday progresses, then slowly push eastward as mid portion of next work week approaches into our area. A slow moving surface cold front may even approach from our northwest by Wednesday. This will bring chances of rainfall back to mid state region. Currently, only isolated to scattered showers with a few rumbles of thunder look to be possible with only light rainfall amounts expected. This change in the weather pattern will result in a slow cold air advection scenario commencing across our area as first half of next work week progresses. Highs by next Wednesday afternoon will be closer to seasonal normal values as lows continue to remain mild mainly in mid 60s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 628 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 VFR conditions will continue this cycle for BNA, MQY, CKV. Some areas of patchy fog may develop overnight, but overall, relative humidity values are quite low with drier air continuing to move in. CSV and SRB have the best chance of cig and vis restrictions with IFR to LIFR conditions possible overnight. Visible satellite shows clouds upstream moving south. If those build in tonight at CSV and SRB, it will greatly diminish any widespread fog development. Winds will be light and variable through the forecast period with passing high clouds Thursday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 68 91 67 93 / 0 0 0 10 Clarksville 66 90 65 93 / 0 0 0 10 Crossville 59 84 59 87 / 0 10 0 10 Columbia 64 90 64 92 / 0 0 0 10 Cookeville 62 85 62 88 / 0 0 0 10 Jamestown 60 84 60 86 / 0 0 0 10 Lawrenceburg 64 89 63 91 / 0 0 0 10 Murfreesboro 65 90 64 93 / 0 0 0 10 Waverly 65 90 65 91 / 0 0 0 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Shamburger SHORT TERM...JB Wright LONG TERM....JB Wright AVIATION.....Baggett