760
FXUS64 KOHX 221652
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1152 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1131 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Hot and humid is the main weather story today and tomorrow thanks
to an upper level ridge of high pressure overhead. Current
temperatures late this morning are already in the mid 80s on the
Plateau and upper 80s to low 90s elsewhere, and highs should
easily reach around 90 on the Plateau and mid to upper 90s across
the rest of the area this afternoon. Guidance such as the HRRR
continues to show some isolated showers and maybe a thunderstorm
popping up this afternoon, and indeed already seeing some tiny
showers on radar as well as some towering cumulus on visible
satellite. Therefore will keep a slight chance pop going, mainly
across our northeast half.

On Sunday into Sunday night, a weak cold front will move across
the area bringing a better albeit still low chance for showers
and storms across the midstate. Despite the increased rain
chances, temps will still be quite hot and near or only slightly
below today`s readings. SPC continues to highlight our cwa in a
marginal risk for severe storms on Sunday into Sunday night.
Forecast soundings do show MLCAPE peaking in the 1500-2000 range
on Sunday afternoon, but lapse rates are very poor in the 5-6C/km
range and shear is quite weak. Therefore not anticipating much in
the way of strong to severe activity, with a couple storms
potentially producing some strong microburst winds.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1131 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Airmass behind the front will dry us out for Monday and Tuesday,
which will actually allow temperatures to heat up more easily
thanks to the upper ridge remaining nearby. Highs should reach the
90s both days areawide, and a few locations could hit the 100
degree mark such as BNA. Thankfully, lower dewpoints should keep
our heat index values just below the 105 degree mark for a Heat
Advisory both days, but it will be close.

Temperatures "cool" down for Wednesday and Thursday as an upper
trough digs southward from the Great Lakes pushing another front
down from the north. This system looks to bring our highest chance
for rain in the next 7 days on Wednesday, with high chance to
likely pops across the midstate. Forecast soundings show slightly
lower CAPE but a bit higher lapse rates and shear on Wednesday, so
a few strong or maybe severe storms could occur and another SPC
marginal risk is possible. After the brief respite from the heat,
a new and stronger upper ridge is forecast to develop across the
southern Plains eastward into the Tennessee Valley by next
weekend. Therefore we will heat right back up into the upper 90s
to near 100 by end of the forecast period, with only slight
chances for some summertime pulse showers/storms.


&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

High pressure continues to dominate the weather across Middle
Tennessee at the surface and aloft. After some lingering radiation
fog dissipates by 13Z, we`ll be VFR the rest of the way. Winds
will remain light/calm thru the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      98  75  97  75 /  20   0  30  30
Clarksville    95  74  93  71 /  10  10  30  20
Crossville     89  67  88  67 /  20   0  30  40
Columbia       97  71  96  73 /  10   0  30  30
Cookeville     91  70  90  70 /  20   0  30  40
Jamestown      90  69  89  68 /  20  10  40  40
Lawrenceburg   95  70  95  72 /  10   0  30  30
Murfreesboro   97  71  96  72 /  10   0  30  30
Waverly        95  72  93  72 /  10   0  30  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Shamburger
LONG TERM....Shamburger
AVIATION.....Rose