806
FXUS64 KOHX 190235
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
935 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 931 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Warm and humid evening across Middle Tennessee with current
temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s with dewpoints in the mid
to upper 60s. Main forecast issue for tonight will be fog, as
skies have mostly cleared across the midstate and dewpoints
depressions are already 5 degrees or less across our south and
east. Therefore fairly widespread fog is likely overnight,
especially in our southern and eastern counties, and it could be
dense in some areas. Rest of forecast remains on track with no
major changes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1142 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Despite a continuance of low cloud coverage across a good portion
of mid state region, latest suite of forecast model runs showing
depth of current moisture eroding slowly as afternoon through
nighttime hours progress. Will continue with current high
temperature forecast for today as current regional temperature
trends continue to support forecasted afternoon high temperature
values. Tonight lows will be on seasonably warm side ranging
generally low to mid 60s, around 60 Cumberland Plateau Region.
With light and variable winds becoming predominate after midnight
tonight, patchy to areas of fog formation being possible lasting
thru the early morning hours across our area. Look for strong
upper level ridging influences to build in from our west
especially as Thursday progresses. High temperatures will be more
like typical summertime normals, ranging upper 80s to lower 90s,
mid 80s for locations just west of and across Cumberland Plateau
Region under generally mostly clear skies.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1142 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Upper level ridging influences will be dominant weather player
through upcoming weekend with atmospheric low level ridging
influences also continuing. Thus dry conditions will also continue
to prevail. This enhancing warm air advection scenario means that
high temperatures could reach into low to mid 90s, upper 80s to
around 90 for locations just west of and across Cumberland Plateau
Region with seasonably mild lows spanning the 60s this weekend.
Good thing is that afternoon humidity values will only span the
40s so maximum afternoon heat index values will be at or even
slightly lower than forecasted max temperatures. Look for upper
level troughing influences to become more enhanced bisecting
northeast to southwest across central CONUS as next Monday
progresses, then slowly push eastward as mid portion of next work
week approaches into our area. A slow moving surface cold front
may even approach from our northwest by Wednesday. This will
bring chances of rainfall back to mid state region. Currently,
only isolated to scattered showers with a few rumbles of thunder
look to be possible with only light rainfall amounts expected.
This change in the weather pattern will result in a slow cold air
advection scenario commencing across our area as first half of
next work week progresses. Highs by next Wednesday afternoon will
be closer to seasonal normal values as lows continue to remain
mild mainly in mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

VFR conditions will continue this cycle for BNA, MQY, CKV. Some
areas of patchy fog may develop overnight, but overall, relative
humidity values are quite low with drier air continuing to move
in. CSV and SRB have the best chance of cig and vis restrictions
with IFR to LIFR conditions possible overnight. Visible satellite
shows clouds upstream moving south. If those build in tonight at
CSV and SRB, it will greatly diminish any widespread fog
development.

Winds will be light and variable through the forecast period with
passing high clouds Thursday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      68  91  67  93 /   0   0   0  10
Clarksville    66  90  65  93 /   0   0   0  10
Crossville     59  84  59  87 /   0  10   0  10
Columbia       64  90  64  92 /   0   0   0  10
Cookeville     62  85  62  88 /   0   0   0  10
Jamestown      60  84  60  86 /   0   0   0  10
Lawrenceburg   64  89  63  91 /   0   0   0  10
Murfreesboro   65  90  64  93 /   0   0   0  10
Waverly        65  90  65  91 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Shamburger
SHORT TERM...JB Wright
LONG TERM....JB Wright
AVIATION.....Baggett