186
FXUS64 KOHX 131636
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1136 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1133 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

We have a pretty decent day going on across Middle TN right now.
Temps have climbed into the 80s for almost everyone and without a
southerly boundary layer flow, some mixing is occuring. This is
helping to drop dew points in a few spots and relaxing RH values.
Take advantage. This isn`t going to be the case moving forward into
the weekend.

In the short term, look for some fog development tonight, especially
near bodies of water. I don`t think we`re going to need a dense fog
advisory, but just know visibilities could drop off quickly near
lakes and rivers during your morning commute tomorrow. After any fog
dissipates, we`re looking another decent day with afternoon highs in
the low 90s, like today. Models continue to push an unseasonal front
through the region during the day tomorrow, but it still looks to
wash out before it can cause any rain chances here across the mid-
state. The most likely result from the frontal passage is afternoon
highs a degree or two cooler Saturday than we`ll see today or
tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1133 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

By the end of the weekend, upper level ridging will re-assert itself
across the eastern half of the US. This is going spike afternoon
highs here in Middle TN. Chances of reaching triple digit air
temperatures aren`t looking great, but highs in the upper 90s
coupled with dew points in the upper 60s is likely going to push a
few areas in triple digit Heat Index values on Sunday. With the
ridge in place, I think rain chances will be very, very small
Sunday, but as the ridge pushes east on Monday, we could see enough
height falls to create a chance of isolated to scattered afternoon
storms. If this occurs, these will fall into the typical summertime
thunderstorm category -- heavy rainfall and gusty winds possible.
Beyond Monday, rain chances fall off once again, but afternoon
temperatures look to remain in the low 90s as summer heat starts to
take hold across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hrs with light and
variable winds. With the dry airmass over the the region, not
expecting any fog tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      92  68  94  70 /   0   0  10   0
Clarksville    88  64  91  67 /   0   0  10   0
Crossville     84  63  87  64 /   0   0  10   0
Columbia       91  65  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     86  66  89  66 /   0   0  10  10
Jamestown      86  64  87  64 /   0   0  10  10
Lawrenceburg   90  66  93  68 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   92  66  94  68 /   0   0  10   0
Waverly        88  65  92  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Cravens