165
FXUS64 KOHX 170520
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1220 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 827 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

After a hot day today, a cool and picture-perfect night is in
store for Middle TN. The harvest moon is out in full force
tonight and viewing conditions are excellent with little to no
clouds across the area. Overnight lows are expected to drop into
the upper 50s for most. A few areas of patchy fog are possible
overnight, especially near bodies of water and across our
southwest counties since there`s so much moisture still around
from recent rains. Tuesday looks like another warm day with a mix
of clouds and sun. Highs in the mid 80s. Showers are possible
across the Plateau starting late morning through the afternoon in
association with a potential topical cyclone moving in from the
Atlantic.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1120 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Weak ridging builds aloft causing a drier airmass to move in over
Middle Tn. For some, a welcomed break from the past several days
of rain, but for others, still wishing for some rain that never
arrived. Partly cloudy to clear skies will be the headline with
high temperatures in the upper 80s this afternoon. Much of the
same on Tuesday for our western half of the CWA, but for our
eastern half, increasing clouds and cooler temperatures are
expected. Highs look to only reach the upper 70s across the Upper
Cumberland on Tuesday! Winds will be on the lighter side, out of
the north. With the dry northerly flow, RHs will be on the lower
side making those high temps not feel so bad.

Along with cooler temperatures on Tuesday, there will be some
increased moisture associated with potential Tropical Cyclone
Eight over the Carolinas. This will bring some chance for
precipitation over the Upper Cumberland, but little accumulation
is expected at this time. Latest LREF probabilities show only a 30
percent chance for Crossville to see greater than 0.10 inches of
rainfall through Wednesday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 1120 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

As mentioned above, the Upper Cumberland will see some
precipitation chances through the mid week with the potential of
TC Eight development. By Thursday into Friday, drier conditions
are favored before rain chances return Sunday and into Monday.
Confidence is low on this right now, but latest guidance suggest
a mid-level disturbance pushing through by early next week so some
showers can`t be ruled out at this time. High temperatures warm
back into the upper 80s to even low 90s for Friday and into the
weekend but moderate back into the mid 80s by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

VFR conditions will continue for BNA/MQY/CKV. CSV/SRB will likely
have MVFR and possibly IFR cigs impact the terminals Tuesday
evening. In addition, light showers could impact CSV/SRB from mid
morning through the evening off and on. Winds will be out of the
N/NNE for the taf period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      84  65  86  65 /  10  10   0   0
Clarksville    87  61  87  63 /  10  10   0   0
Crossville     74  58  79  58 /  30  10  20   0
Columbia       85  60  86  62 /  10  10   0   0
Cookeville     75  61  80  61 /  20  10  10   0
Jamestown      72  61  78  59 /  40  10  20   0
Lawrenceburg   84  59  84  62 /  10  10   0   0
Murfreesboro   84  62  86  63 /  10  10  10   0
Waverly        87  61  86  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Baggett
SHORT TERM...Cravens
LONG TERM....Cravens
AVIATION.....Reagan