605
FXUS64 KOHX 161715
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1215 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1120 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Weak ridging builds aloft causing a drier airmass to move in over
Middle Tn. For some, a welcomed break from the past several days
of rain, but for others, still wishing for some rain that never
arrived. Partly cloudy to clear skies will be the headline with
high temperatures in the upper 80s this afternoon. Much of the
same on Tuesday for our western half of the CWA, but for our
eastern half, increasing clouds and cooler temperatures are
expected. Highs look to only reach the upper 70s across the Upper
Cumberland on Tuesday! Winds will be on the lighter side, out of
the north. With the dry northerly flow, RHs will be on the lower
side making those high temps not feel so bad.

Along with cooler temperatures on Tuesday, there will be some
increased moisture associated with potential Tropical Cyclone
Eight over the Carolinas. This will bring some chance for
precipitation over the Upper Cumberland, but little accumulation
is expected at this time. Latest LREF probabilities show only a 30
percent chance for Crossville to see greater than 0.10 inches of
rainfall through Wednesday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 1120 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

As mentioned above, the Upper Cumberland will see some
precipitation chances through the mid week with the potential of
TC Eight development. By Thursday into Friday, drier conditions
are favored before rain chances return Sunday and into Monday.
Confidence is low on this right now, but latest guidance suggest
a mid-level disturbance pushing through by early next week so some
showers can`t be ruled out at this time. High temperatures warm
back into the upper 80s to even low 90s for Friday and into the
weekend but moderate back into the mid 80s by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Winds will
come from the east to north northeast less than 10 kts. Low VFR
cigs will impact CSV and SRB late in the period as moisture
spreads west from an expected tropical low over the Carolinas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      61  85  64  86 /   0  10   0   0
Clarksville    58  87  60  86 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     55  74  58  77 /  10  30  10  10
Columbia       58  85  59  85 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     57  77  60  79 /  10  20  10   0
Jamestown      57  73  60  76 /  20  30  10  10
Lawrenceburg   58  84  59  84 /   0  10   0   0
Murfreesboro   58  84  61  85 /   0  10   0   0
Waverly        59  86  59  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cravens
LONG TERM....Cravens
AVIATION.....13