673
FXUS64 KOHX 211141
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
641 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

After a hot day on Friday temperatures are mild for mid September
with 60s and even a couple stations still in the 70s at this hour.
Some patchy fog will be possible near dawn again this morning. The
ridge is in charge this weekend with another hot and dry day in
store today. Highs will be very similar to yesterday with many of
us topping out in the lower to mid 90s. Sunday will be another hot
one but maybe a couple degrees cooler as the ridge begins to
flatten out. With the ridging influences being slightly less
pronounced and increasing humidity, an isolated storm near the
TN/KY border or along the Tennessee River cannot be completely
ruled out.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Rain chances will increase Monday and Tuesday as a shortwave
ejects out of the central plains towards the Midwest. A couple
scattered storms will be possible on Monday but the better rain
chances will be Tuesday as a weak cold front traverses our area.
QPF with this front looks underwhelming given our ongoing drought.
Generally speaking, QPF will be 0.25" or less. Temperatures will
fall back closer to normal for late September behind the front
with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and lows falling into the
50s and 60s. Behind the early week shortwave, models diverge
regarding the upper level flow with some digging a deeper trough
through the area midweek (mainly GEFS members) while more ENS
members want to cut off the energy well west of our area. The
first solution would bring some more rain chances to the area
while the second solution would see a return of dry conditions.
For now, slight chance PoPs will be carried until some more
agreement is seen.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

For BNA...a few showers are trying to approach from the northwest,
but they are weakening and unlikely to reach the terminal.
Otherwise, anticipate some high cirrus throughout the day with
light west/southwest winds.

For all other TAF sites, VFR conditions are expected over the next
24 hours. Little to no fog has formed so the window of potential
fog impacts as closed. Light west/southwest winds are forecast
during the day today, dropping off once again this evening. A
shower/storm approached KCKV earlier, but those have since
weakened and diminished with no additional activity currently
moving toward the site. All other sites should remain
precipitation free.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      94  71  93  72 /  20  10  10  10
Clarksville    92  70  91  69 /  20  10  20  20
Crossville     88  63  88  63 /  10   0  10  10
Columbia       92  69  93  68 /  20  10  10  10
Cookeville     89  66  89  67 /  10  10  10  10
Jamestown      87  65  87  66 /  10   0  20  10
Lawrenceburg   92  68  92  67 /  10  10  10  10
Murfreesboro   94  69  93  69 /  10  10  10  10
Waverly        90  69  91  69 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....Husted