616
FXUS64 KOHX 190704
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
204 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 201 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

After a high afternoon temperature of 89 at BNA yesterday, it almost
felt like fall was making an early appearance, but alas, it was just
wishful thinking -- a mirage, if you will, either caused by the
upcoming summer heat or by the blanket of clouds holding in
yesterday`s heat. High clouds are insulating us pretty effectively
at forecast time and with the dew points in the upper 60s, it`s
really sticky outside right now. 76 is the record high minimum
temperature for today and we`re at 80 as I write this. It may be
close. Clouds are expected to stick around for a good portion of the
day and this should help to keep highs tempered a bit, at least for
one more day. Latest CAMs keep us dry this afternoon.

That good heat starts to make another appearance tomorrow as upper
ridging takes over across the eastern half of the US. Mid 90s should
reappear and rain chances are almost zero. Could a shower eek
through the ridge? Sure, but it`s unlikely.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 201 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

On Friday, temperatures really start to ramp up, setting the stage
for what could be a very uncomfortable weekend outdoors. Currently
the NBM has BNA at 97, but with the upper ridge overhead and
looking its strongest, I would think Friday might be our warmest
day of the week. However, models show the meat of the heat
Saturday and Sunday, where they are throwing around the idea of
breaking triple digits. We`ll see how that pans out over the next
couple of days, but whether we`re 98, 99 or 100, it`s gonna be
stinkin` hot. Be prepared if you have to be outdoors.

It looked like we were going to have a shot a some rain by the end
of the weekend and while I`m going to continue to carry a small PoP,
there is some indication that the `front` that will push through
here could wash out before we get any convection from it. We`ll
monitor this over the next couple of days, but with the heat and
instability that will be in place, I would think it will only take a
small amount of lift or any weak boundary to fire at least a few
storms Sunday night.

We`ll continue with the heat next week as mid 90s look to stick
around, but with very weak ridging aloft, it looks like diurnal
showers and thunderstorms might be back in the cards each afternoon.
That would make sense since summer officially starts tomorrow at 450
pm.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

While high clouds will be around, VFR conditions are expected for
this TAF cycle. Winds will be light and variable at times, but the
prevailing fetch should be from the southeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      91  71  95  73 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    89  70  93  71 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     85  64  88  66 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia       90  68  94  70 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     87  68  90  69 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      87  66  89  67 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   88  67  92  69 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   91  68  95  70 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        89  70  93  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Unger