621
FXUS64 KOHX 150512
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1212 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1106 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Yep. The remnants of Francine are still here. Her weakening upper
low sits just off to our southwest and it continues to pull plenty
of moisture into the area. Showers have been ongoing across our
southwest counties since early this morning and have dropped quite a
bit of rain. While we`ve only had reports of minor flooding, storm
totals nearing 8 inches have been recorded in southern Lawrenceburg
county. Light to moderate rain will continue for them and
surrounding communities for several more hours but I think their
rain rates should stay in check and not cause any further issues.
We`ll allow their Flood Watch to continue through 00Z. In addition
to that rain, areas along and east of I-24 have seen lots of sun
this morning. Because of that, instability growth is expected into
the afternoon and early evening hours. NBM doesn`t agree, but most
of the CAMs are suggesting late afternoon/early afternoon storm
development along and north of I-40. For these reasons, I`ve
increased PoP chances for this area through 03Z this evening. Rain
rates should be decent and there`s even a chance for a rumble of
thunder, but no severe and no flooding is expected.

I wanted to completely remove PoPs for tomorrow, but I don`t know if
I can just yet. Maybe the midnight shift can. Models are trending
drier and drier. An isolated storm is possible tomorrow afternoon at
this point. Thunder would be possible during the heat of the
afternoon, but no severe is expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1106 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

By Monday, we should be done with Francine. Finally. Yes, she ended
up being a bummer for most of Middle TN, but those that got the rain
definitely needed it. Here`s the stinky part: those who didn`t? The
crunchy grass is just gonna get worse. I don`t have PoPs in the
forecast through the rest of the week and right now, even next
weekend`s rain chances aren`t looking great. The big story will be
this tropical/sub-tropical system off the east coast and whether or
not it will provide us any rain next weekend. In any event,
temperatures should hover around normal for this time of the year,
so we won`t be too hot or cold over the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Scattered showers in the southwest part of the area will gradually
diminish overnight with thinning clouds. Patchy fog will be
possible outside of the Nashville area and may bring MVFR to LIFR
conditions at times between 06 and 13z. A few showers will be
possible once again Sunday afternoon mainly along and west of
I-24. Light winds tonight increasing up to 10 knots Sunday out of
the east.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      87  65  88  62 /  30  10   0   0
Clarksville    87  63  88  58 /  20  10   0   0
Crossville     83  56  82  53 /  10   0  10  10
Columbia       85  62  87  58 /  30  10  10   0
Cookeville     85  60  83  57 /  20   0  10  10
Jamestown      84  58  81  55 /  10   0  10  10
Lawrenceburg   84  61  86  58 /  30  10  10   0
Murfreesboro   88  63  88  60 /  30  10   0   0
Waverly        84  64  87  58 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Mueller