152
FXUS64 KOHX 201707
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1207 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Not much change here from previous forecast reasoning and previous
issuances of early morning suite of forecast products with dry
conditions due to ridging influences still "As far as the eye can
see" prevailing across mid state region through Saturday
afternoon. Let`s visit the meaning of the slogan "Wash, Rinse,
Repeat" for both highs for this afternoon and Saturday afternoon,
or if you prefer, the term "Carbon Copy." Highs today and Saturday
both will range in low to mid 90s, upper 80s to around 90 for
locations west of Cumberland Plateau Region. With forecasted
slightly warmer afternoon humidity values, especially on Saturday
afternoon, some isolated locations west of Cumberland Plateau
Region could approach heat index value wise around 100 degrees.
Lows tonight will continue the seasonably mild trend of late and
potentially be a little warmer than those even experienced this
morning, ranging thru the 60s. With strong upper level ridging
influences in place along with forecasted little cloudiness, not
much wind, and favorable dewpoint depressions, strong indications
that patchy fog formation will once again occur, mainly for
locations around and west of I-65 Corridor Region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

The continuation of dominance in atmospheric ridging influences
will continue lows and highs along with patchy fog chances in
similar categories and locations both Saturday Night and Sunday
Night with highs almost identical to those experienced today and
Saturday once again on Sunday. After Monday with highs slightly
cooler ranging upper 80s to lower 90s, mid 80s Cumberland Plateau
Region, a more of an unsettled weather pattern will come in play
as next work week progresses with generally isolated/scattered
showers and potentially thunderstorms also. Total rainfall amounts
continue to look light, generally less than 0.50." Temperatures
will slowly cool down closer to seasonal values as second half of
next work week progresses. As for Friday, latest GFS solution has
"a quite interesting" weather pattern depicted across eastern
half of CONUS as Friday progresses. Actual right model solution
quandaries in abundance with this double closed surface/upper
level stacked low pressure centers depicted in weather pattern
across eastern CONUS in this present GFS model run. So I believe
best thing here is to let some additional GFS and ECMWF model runs
occur before diving into some consistency of an agreed upon
weather pattern across eastern CONUS late next work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

VFR conditions prevail with light and variable winds and mostly
clear skies. There is the possibility of fog tonight, particularly
across the west and at KCKV, but confidence was not high enough to
include in the TAF at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      71  94  71  94 /   0  10  10  20
Clarksville    70  93  69  93 /  10  10  10  20
Crossville     61  88  62  88 /   0  10   0  10
Columbia       67  93  67  93 /   0  10   0  10
Cookeville     65  89  65  89 /   0  10   0  20
Jamestown      64  88  64  88 /   0  10  10  20
Lawrenceburg   66  92  67  92 /   0   0   0  10
Murfreesboro   68  94  68  94 /   0  10   0  10
Waverly        68  91  68  91 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JB Wright
LONG TERM....JB Wright
AVIATION.....Clements