Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
763 FXUS64 KOHX 231655 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1155 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday Night) Issued at 1120 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Radar late this morning shows a weakening line of light rain showers moving southeastward across northern parts of the midstate. This activity should continue to weaken over the next couple of hours as it moves further southeast. However, additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to form along any remnant outflow from this activity, as well as along and ahead of a cold front currently approaching the Ohio River, based on the latest HRRR model runs. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE peaking in the 1500-2000 J/Kg range with fairly steep low level lapse rates and PWATs rising to around the 2 inch mark. These parameters are favorable for a few storms to produce wet microbursts with potential of damaging winds and maybe some small hail. However, mid level lapse rates will be very weak around 5.5 C/km or less with deep layer shear also weak at 25 knots, which should help keep the strong to severe storm threat isolated. SPC continues to highlight our area in a marginal risk for severe storms today which seems reasonable. Cloud cover and precip will keep temps down a degree or two from yesterday`s readings, especially across our northwest counties, but it will still get quite hot with highs reaching around 90 on the Plateau and mid to upper 90s elsewhere. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Sunday) Issued at 1120 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Front will pass through the area tonight with a drier and slightly cooler airmass filtering in behind the boundary for Monday, with highs a couple degrees lower than today. However, we will heat right back up on Tuesday as upper ridging builds back in aloft, with highs in the 90s anticipated for nearly everyone once again. A much stronger upper level trough and associated cold front is shown by guidance to dig southward out of the Great Lakes on Wednesday into Wednesday night, bringing our best chance for showers and storms over the next week with high chance to likely pops. Forecast soundings for Wednesday show weak MLCAPE for late June between 1000-1500 J/Kg, but also show a bit stronger deep layer shear and slightly steeper lapse rates than we will see today, along with considerable dry air aloft and DCAPE over 1000 J/Kg. Therefore, a few strong to severe storms with damaging microbursts winds and small hail appear possible once again, and I`d expect SPC to highlight our area in marginal risk on their new Day 3 outlook tonight. After the wet Wednesday, we dry out again for Thursday but will also see much cooler temperatures in the wake of the front pushing through with highs only in the mid 80s to low 90s. Unfortunately, this "cooldown" will be shortlived as an H5 ridge strengthens significantly across the southern Plains into the Southeast with heights rising to around 597dm. This will cause temps to soar back into the mid to upper 90s west of the Plateau, and a few locations could hit the 100 degree mark. 12Z guidance differs next weekend on timing and how far south a front makes it into our area, but due to the strength of the upper ridge forecast it will likely struggle to make much headway into the midstate. Nevertheless, pops will be on the increase by late weekend with temperatures potentially "cooling" back down somewhat again. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 633 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 High pressure is finally sliding off to the east, and this will pave the way for a weak surface boundary currently approaching Middle Tennessee from the northwest to push through the mid state later today. There are scattered PoPs in the forecast for this afternoon and early evening, so we`ve included mention of TS/CBs during the p.m. time frame. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 96 72 95 70 / 40 20 0 0 Clarksville 93 69 93 69 / 40 10 0 0 Crossville 88 66 86 60 / 50 50 0 0 Columbia 95 70 96 68 / 30 20 0 0 Cookeville 90 67 87 64 / 50 50 0 0 Jamestown 88 66 85 62 / 50 50 0 0 Lawrenceburg 94 69 94 67 / 30 30 0 0 Murfreesboro 96 69 95 67 / 40 30 0 0 Waverly 93 69 94 70 / 30 10 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Shamburger LONG TERM....Shamburger AVIATION.....Rose