267
FXUS64 KOHX 170056
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
756 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 739 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

After a hot steamy day, it has been a stormy late afternoon and
early evening for parts of the area, including some of the Plateau
and the east of side of Nashville Metro. Very heavy downpours,
frequent lightning, gusty winds of 30 to 40 mph, and some pea size
hail have occurred. The main feature driving the storms today has
been high surface based cape of 3,000 to 4,000 J/kg. There is
very little shear and mid level lapse rates are weak. All this
means that the storms will die off this evening as we loose
daytime heating.

Monday temps may back off a little but still hot and steamy with
some scattered storms popping up in the heat. Short range models
show axis of most storm activity shifting westward, perhaps mostly
west of I-65 Monday. Overall storm characteristics will likely be
the same with very heavy downpours, lightning, and local gusty
winds, but mostly below severe criteria.

Evening forecast was updated for hourly trends, and at least one
more update will be issued this evening as storms dissipate.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1048 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Satellite imagery this afternoon shows the center of a strong
high pressure system to our east. This eastward shift has allowed
surface winds to become southerly, and temperatures are already
toasty late this morning with current readings in the upper-80s to
low-90s. These temperatures will continue to warm this afternoon,
eventually making it into the mid and upper-90s. While a couple
locations will get close, chances of hitting 100 remain low (10-30
percent) although it won`t feel like it with heat index values
around 100 to 104 degrees.

With an increase in moisture today, chances for afternoon
thunderstorms will also trend up. These pop-up thunderstorms will
be disorganized with severe thunderstorms not expected. However,
as is usually the case with summertime convection, any
thunderstorm may be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall,
gusty winds, and frequent lightning. Thunderstorm coverage will
diminish after sunset with the loss of daytime heating.

A very similar pattern sets up on Monday as the high pressure
remains centered to our east over the Carolinas. Temperatures will
again warm up into the mid-90s, and hit-and-miss thunderstorms
will develop in the afternoon before diminishing again after
sunset.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1048 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Much of the upcoming week looks to be quiet with mainly the heat
to talk about. The strong high pressure becomes centered over the
mid-Atlantic states, but it will be strong enough to extinguish
our own precipitation chances for several days. Tuesday through at
least Thursday look rain-free with daily highs consistently
staying in the 90s. For our next chance of rain, we`ll have to
look ahead to next weekend as models are showing the possibility
of a weak disturbance off the eastern coast of Florida that may
track west-northwest into the southeastern US as the
aforementioned high moves back towards the south. Confidence is
low on if this develops and exact timing of any rain, but it`s
enough for low rain chances (20-40 percent) Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Surrounding thunderstorms continue to popup over Middle TN, but
are on the downhill trend with daylight diminishing. Largely VFR
conditions at time of writing, but periods of reduced VIS, lower
CIGs, and gusty winds are possible with any thunderstorm that
passes overhead. Thunderstorm activity should dissipate by 02z
making way for VFR conditions through Monday afternoon. At that
time, vicinity storms will begin to develop once again. That being
said, coverage looks to be less than what we have seen this
afternoon and evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      72  94  75  93 /  60  30  20  10
Clarksville    73  91  73  90 /  30  30  20  10
Crossville     68  87  68  86 /  20  30  10   0
Columbia       71  93  73  91 /  30  30  20  10
Cookeville     70  90  72  89 /  30  30  10   0
Jamestown      69  90  70  88 /  20  30  10  10
Lawrenceburg   71  92  72  89 /  30  30  20   0
Murfreesboro   71  94  73  92 /  50  30  20   0
Waverly        72  91  73  89 /  20  40  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......13
SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Cravens