Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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422 FXUS64 KOHX 231707 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1207 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 We expect a little more coverage of showers and storms this afternoon than yesterday thanks to falling heights, stronger shear, and perhaps some weak mid level impulses. A storm or 2 may become briefly severe with gusty winds, but mid level lapse rates are still unimpressive. Generally greater coverage of showers and storms is expected north of I-40 with very low coverage down toward the Alabama border. A few showers or storms will linger tonight as deep southwest flow develops ahead of an approaching trough. On Tuesday, coverage will ramp up more as a surface front pushes into the area. A few afternoon storms could be briefly severe with gusty winds. SPC has our area under a marginal risk (1 out of 5). The additional clouds and rain coverage will knock highs down a few degrees for Tuesday. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through next Monday) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 The extended forecast continues to look unsettled with daily rain chances. The front arriving Tuesday will stall out midweek as a couple of big systems start to come into play. The first will be a developing upper level low pressure system over Arkansas and the other will be a likely tropical system coming up from the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The tropical system is currently in the strengthening stages and is expected to become strong Hurricane Helene before moving onshore along the Florida Gulf Coast. The storm will then gradually weaken as it gets lifted northward between the upper level low over Arkansas and an upper ridge over the Atlantic. The tropical low and mid latitude low are expected to merge over the region this weekend keeping rain chances going throughout the forecast period. The highest probabilities for soaking rain in our area are shown Thursday into Friday as the biggest slug of tropical moisture lifts across the area. Our latest rainfall forecast shows generally 2 to 4 inches of rain by Saturday with the higher totals over the Plateau. Obviously there is a lot of uncertainty with this forecast involving a tropical systems, so we could end up with lower or perhaps higher totals. Localized flooding could be a concern Thursday into Friday. Also, gusty winds and localized severe storms cannot be ruled out, but there is far too much uncertainty at this time to say what that risk level will be. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 615 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Patchy dense fog has developed this morning, primarily impacting KCKV, KCSV, and KSRB with IFR visibilities. This fog will diminish after sunrise. Primary aviation concern through today will be scattered showers and thunderstorms. Greatest coverage of storms is expected between 18Z and 00Z, but confidence in exact timing for terminals is low. Primary impacts will be reduced visibility from heavy rain, gusty winds, and lightning. Fog is likely to redevelop tonight, especially across the Plateau, with IFR visibilities once again. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 90 71 86 67 / 40 30 70 60 Clarksville 86 69 82 63 / 40 50 70 20 Crossville 86 64 82 61 / 50 20 80 80 Columbia 91 69 86 65 / 30 30 70 60 Cookeville 86 66 84 64 / 50 20 80 80 Jamestown 84 64 81 63 / 60 30 80 80 Lawrenceburg 90 68 86 64 / 30 20 70 80 Murfreesboro 91 69 87 66 / 40 30 70 70 Waverly 89 67 81 62 / 30 40 70 20 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION.....Clements