221
FXUS64 KOHX 240612
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
112 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 109 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Water vapor imagery this morning shows an upper-level trough digging
into the Great Plains while surface obs reveal a cold front to our
west over Missouri & Arkansas. As this front pushes into the area
today, storm coverage will increase across Middle TN. With SBCAPE of
1500 to 2000 J/kg and bulk shear increasing to 30 to 40 knots, a few
of these storms may become strong to severe this afternoon. Main
risk will be gusty to damaging winds. Hail looks to be unlikely as
lapse rates will be poor at less than 6 C/km. Main time frame for
severe thunderstorm potential is between 1pm and 8pm. Meanwhile,
temperatures will start to cool thanks to increased cloud cover and
the rain. A few showers may linger overnight, especially across the
Plateau where the cold front looks to stall.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 109 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

A more active week is still on tap. Starting Wednesday, another
upper-level low dives southward into northern Arkansas and stalls in
this area through the weekend. Meanwhile, eyes are also on the
tropics as PTC9 is forecast to strengthen over the eastern Gulf this
week, eventually becoming Hurricane Helene. It`s expected to make
landfall on the Florida Panhandle Thursday, and then gradually
weaken as it tracks northward into eastern TN Friday. Once the
remnants of the tropical system move out the area, the low over AR
will finally eject towards the northeast, clearing Middle TN by
Monday or Tuesday.

These two systems will bring rounds of rain to Middle TN through the
remainder of this forecast period. Best chance for heaviest rainfall
will be on Thursday & Friday thanks to the tropical moisture moving
into the area, and with the track of future Helene to our east,
it`ll be eastern Middle TN that will be favored for the highest
rainfall amounts this time. The latest rainfall forecast is still
showing a general 2 to 4 inches through this upcoming weekend with
higher amounts possible across the Plateau. Minor flooding could be
a concern by week`s end, but widespread flooding is currently not
expected as the current drought status means that our rivers and
creeks will have room for the welcome rain. But of course this
forecast will continue to be refined as the future tropical system
takes shape over the next few days so stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

The 06Z TAFs are starting off VFR, but there is the possibility of
some radiation fog at our eastern terminals (CSV, SRB) overnight.
Meanwhile, an upper trough has set up west of Mississippi Valley,
and a surface low pressure system is now developing near STL that
is providing the focus for some ongoing convection in that
proximity. The HRRR does show at least some scattered cells
developing across Middle Tennessee toward morning, with more
widespread convection expected this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      86  67  79  65 /  70  40  50  50
Clarksville    82  62  78  61 /  70  20  30  40
Crossville     83  61  74  59 /  70  80  80  70
Columbia       86  64  78  61 /  70  40  60  50
Cookeville     83  63  75  62 /  70  60  70  70
Jamestown      82  62  74  61 /  80  70  70  70
Lawrenceburg   87  64  76  61 /  70  50  60  50
Murfreesboro   87  66  78  63 /  70  50  60  60
Waverly        82  62  77  60 /  60  20  30  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....Rose