789
FXUS64 KOHX 302314
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
614 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

After seeing some morning thunderstorms that brought heavy rain
to parts of the area we are overall seeing quiet weather and a
break in the activity. Dew points are in the mid to upper 70s
making it feel very humid, highs this afternoon will make it into
the upper 80s north and lower 90s south. A cold front is sitting
just to our north over KY and this will push south this afternoon.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead
of this front and that is what we can expect for the afternoon
with the best chances to the east of I-65. The atmosphere will
recover and we will see plenty of CAPE this afternoon. Shear will
be on the low side and lapse rates could be better, this will
limit severe weather but still can`t rule out some gusty winds
with any of the stronger cells. The bigger impact will be heavy
rain, PWATs are as highs as 2.30". Storm motion this morning was
parallel to the front and we saw some training, thankfully storm
motions has shifted more southeast and this should limit training
storms over the same area but with the highs PWATs we still could
see some localized flooding with thunderstorms.

Thunderstorm chances will diminish by 7-8 PM this evening and then
we will see much cooler direr air build in behind the front
overnight. Lows tonight will fall into the mid 50s to lower 60s
with dew points falling into the 50s by daybreak. We will then see
a great day on Monday with highs in the 80s and very comfortable
dew points.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Unfortunately our cooler and comfortable weather won`t last as
upper level ridging will start to build back in over the region.
This will warm things back up into the 90s on Tuesday and highs
will stay in the low to mid 90s through the rest of the week. We
will also see very warm overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s,
this will bring little to no relief to those without air
conditioning. The high will be slightly off to our east starting
Wednesday and this will push high dew points into the region and
it will feel very humid with dew points above 70. A popup
afternoon storm will be possible on Wednesday but chances look
low. We will start to see slightly better chances for mainly
afternoon thunderstorms Thursday and Friday as troughing develops
over the Great Lakes pushing a stationary boundary to our north.
Forcing still doesn`t look great in our area but should be enough
to kick some stuff off. This front may push south through the area
early next weekend and that would bring slight cooling.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Showers and storms are over for mid-state terminals. VFR
conditions expected through this TAF cycle. Light north winds
overnight become breezy by 14Z/Mon from the northeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      66  84  64  94 /  10   0   0   0
Clarksville    62  81  61  92 /  10   0   0   0
Crossville     58  79  58  86 /  30   0   0   0
Columbia       63  84  61  93 /  20   0   0   0
Cookeville     60  79  59  88 /  20   0   0   0
Jamestown      58  78  57  88 /  20   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   62  84  60  91 /  40   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   63  85  61  94 /  20   0   0   0
Waverly        62  81  61  93 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mueller
LONG TERM....Mueller
AVIATION.....Unger