599
FXUS64 KOHX 220650
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
150 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 125 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Temperatures are holding strong in the 70s as I write this at nearly
1 o`clock in the morning. Even though it`s still so warm, dew points
are around 60, so there`s enough of a depression that it doesn`t
feel totally awful out there. Today marks the beginning of a very
active weather pattern. We`re watching a batch of showers with a few
embedded thunderstorms slowly move this way from the west. Don`t
anticipate much from this as it`s falling apart and moving into
more stable air. It looks like what`s left of it will likely fall
completely apart as it moves into our area later this morning.

The more important thing to talk about is the chance for a few
strong to severe storms later this afternoon ahead of a front.
Models continue to show plenty of instability this afternoon, over
3000 J/kg, with ample moisture. Our dewpoints will be at or near
70 degrees. 0-6 km shear is around 30-35 kts, so certainly enough
for a damaging wind threat. Mid-level lapse rates are between 6.5
to 7 C/km, so there will also be a hail threat this afternoon. The
tornado threat is lower on the list of hazards, but is not zero.
0-1 km storm-relative helicity values are generally below 100
m2/s2, but again...not zero. Timing for impacts this afternoon
look to be from roughly 4pm-11pm. Areas along and west of I-65
have a higher chance of seeing strong to severe storms, but ALL of
Middle Tennessee will be very unstable with a threat for strong
storms to develop, so remain weather aware and ready to act just
in case a warning be issued.

Overnight Wednesday into Thursday, another pulse of showers and
thunderstorms will push through the area. The severe threat with
those storms is very low. Likely some rumbles of thunder and heavy
rain.

Yet another round of showers and thunderstorms will push through
Thursday afternoon as daytime heating helps to yet again ramp up
our instability values to near 2500 J/Kg. The overall setup looks
very similar to today`s; damaging wind, hail, and heavy rain will
be the primary threats.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 125 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

This active weather pattern will carry us into the long term portion
of the forecast with multiple days of strong to severe thunderstorm
potential. While you should be aware each day, the days we`re
keeping our eyes peeled for are Friday, Sunday, and Monday. All 3 of
those days pose an all-hazard threat; damaging winds, hail, and
tornadoes. Another potential threat we`ll have to monitor throughout
this week will be flooding. You`ll likely notice the air is very
heavy this week; muggy. Our atmosphere is going to be supremely
rich in moisture, which is a big reason why we`re having all of
these days of stormy weather. Models are showing high PWAT values,
especially as we move into the weekend. Another parameter
grabbing my attention is downdraft CAPE; that is, the amount of
downward energy to push the rain out of the cloud. DCAPE values
are high, lending to heavy downpours being likely. So combining
high PWAT + high DCAPE + multiple waves of precip....You get good
potential for flooding.

All-in-all, remain weather aware the rest of the week and stay
tuned for updates. I know everyone is tired of how active the
weather has been. I realize it`s exhausting in itself to have to
check back all the time for updates, but hang in there. We`ll get
through it one day at a time!

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the morning hours at all
terminals. CKV could be impacted by a brief shower this morning.
Scattered storms will likely develop Wednesday afternoon/evening
and could impact CKV/BNA/MQY. Confidence is lower at SRB/CSV.
PROB30 groups were added to the most likely time frame for storms.
Winds will be out of the S/SSW around 5 kts overnight and
increasing closer to 10 kts by late morning with a few gusts up
to 20 kts during the afternoon. Winds will decrease below 5 kts
again after 23/00z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      85  68  81  68 /  70  70  70  50
Clarksville    82  67  80  66 /  80  80  80  60
Crossville     80  62  75  61 /  30  50  50  50
Columbia       86  66  81  65 /  50  70  70  50
Cookeville     81  64  76  64 /  40  60  60  50
Jamestown      81  63  75  61 /  40  60  60  50
Lawrenceburg   85  66  81  66 /  40  50  60  50
Murfreesboro   85  66  81  65 /  50  60  60  50
Waverly        83  65  80  65 /  80  80  80  60

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baggett
LONG TERM....Baggett
AVIATION.....Reagan