693
FXUS61 KOKX 231711
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
111 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will move through the area today and
tonight, moving offshore early Friday morning. Weak high
pressure builds in Friday and remains Friday night. High
pressure moves over the region Saturday. A cold front moves
through Sunday, moving back north as a warm front Monday. A cold
front moves through Tuesday with dry conditions expected by
mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

Showers with embedded thunderstorms are exiting east of the
forecast area early this afternoon. Additional showers will be
possible this afternoon, mainly over the southern zones. CAMs
still imply sct convective shower activity right along a slow-
moving cold front late day into early evening for approx the SW
half of the forecast area. Will leave thunder out of the
forecast for now, but CAPEs should recover this afternoon with
some clearing behind the exiting storms. Might therefore need to
add a mention of thunder for anything the pops up along the
front later today. Lowered the high temp forecast slightly
based on latest obs and anticipated cloud cover for the next
hour or two. Highs still reaching the low 80s in NE NJ and 75-80
for most other locations. Low 70s along south-facing coasts.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front slowly moves to the south this evening through
tonight and passes south Friday morning. Little precipitation
is expected with the front after this evening, and will be
mainly to the south, ahead of the front, so have gone with a dry
forecast later this evening and through tonight. Ridging
amplifies to the west tonight and the ridge moves slowly into
the region Friday into Friday night as weak surface high
pressure builds to the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key points:

* Above normal temperatures on Sunday transition to near or slightly
  above normal Monday through Wednesday.

* Rather unsettled during this time frame with multiple fronts
  affecting the area.

Zonal flow aloft for Saturday, though there are some model
differences with the potential for a weak cut off low over Virginia
to head toward the region as advertised by the 00Z GFS. This low
This low weakens into a trough as it moves toward the area late
Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

A cold front approaches later Saturday night and moves through
Sunday morning, bringing a chance for light showers.

Strengthening low pressure over the western Great Lakes region heads
northwest into Canada on Monday, sending the cold front that moved
through on Sunday back north as a warm front. A period of unsettled
weather is then expected from Monday through Monday night as the
warm front, then cold front move through the region. A period of
moderate to briefly heavy rain is possible Monday night in
association with the cold frontal passage. However, given
uncertainty this far out, did not mention in the forecast just yet.
The area looks to get dry slotted for Tuesday, cutting off
precipitation, though condition could get breezy as the low
continues to strengthen somewhere over the Great Lakes region or
southern Canada, depending on the model. Dry conditions continue
into Wednesday.

Above normal temperatures Sunday will trend closer to normal to
slightly above normal for the remainder of the long term period.
Monday temperatures may be a couple of degrees to high if more in
the way of clouds and rain occurs, as is advertised by the ECMWF
and Canadian models.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A weak front pushes through tonight.

Mainly VFR. There is a chance for some MVFR conditions for
eastern areas tonight (KJFK, KISP, KBDR and KGON), mainly after
03Z, but this is more likely to be patchy fog rather than
stratus.

Winds shift S to SW around 10kt this afternoon before becoming
light and variable tonight (mainly north). On Friday winds
become onshore around 10 kt by 15z-16z.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments are expected outside of patchy fog
along the coast overnight.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18z Friday: VFR.

Saturday: Chance of afternoon/evening showers and possibly a tstm,
with MVFR cond possible.

Sunday: Mainly VFR.

Monday: Chance of showers and possibly a tstm, with MVFR cond
possible.

Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected across the forecast waters today
through Monday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected today with rainfall of 1/4 to
1/2 inch, with locally higher amounts possible in heavy rain
with thunderstorms.

No hydrologic impacts are expected tonight through the middle of
next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/MET
NEAR TERM...JC/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...JP/MET
HYDROLOGY...JP/MET