536
FXUS61 KOKX 020555
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
155 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the mid Atlantic coast remains overnight
and gradually drifts offshore Sunday. A weakening disturbance
moves through late Sunday night and for the first half of
Monday. High pressure remains over the area Tuesday and
Wednesday before sliding offshore Wednesday evening. A series of
frontal systems then approach the area by the end of the week
into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
No significant changes from the previous update.

High pressure settles over the area tonight. A dry air mass for
this time of year with dew point readings primarily in the
lower half of the 50s, so a rather comfortable night. Outlying
areas will likely not get as cool as the previous night with
some air mass modification starting to take place. The winds
will be light to calm with the high essentially directly over
the region. With deep layer ridging in place look for
essentially clear skies, although some cirrus may sneak into far
western locations later in the overnight. Lows should get down
into the lower and middle 50s in the coolest locations in the
non urban areas, with mainly lower 60s across the more metro
areas.

Another pleasant day across the area on Sunday. The mid and upper
level ridge axis starts to shift overhead, and with this there
should be more in the way of high level moisture starting to
intrude, especially for western areas later in the day. Other than
some cirrus, look for a good deal of sunshine. The synoptic pressure
gradient will be quite weak, and thus earlier sea breeze development
is expected. With the high getting further offshore the synoptic
flow will have more of a southerly component, and with daytime
heating the southerly flow will increase and thus a hybrid sea
breeze should be able to penetrate further north and west for the
afternoon hours. It will still be a fairly comfortable warm day with
dew point reading remaining primarily in the 50s, with perhaps the
immediate south shore of Long Island having dew points approach 60
later in the afternoon with more of a wind directly off the ocean.
Temperatures will be very similar to what they were the previous
day, with perhaps far eastern and southern locations being a couple
of degrees cooler, especially later in the afternoon with more of a
sea breeze and wind off the water influence.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A weakening mid level short wave starts to draw closer during the
beginning of the period. As the shortwave progresses east and
over the Appalachians it will get dampened out and lose amplitude.
Look for clouds to increase Sunday night from west to east as the
mid and upper ridge axis gets offshore. As the shortwave gets
suppressed it will have difficulty conserving vorticity and thus
it undergoes some shearing. The BUFKIT sounding essentially show
the higher RH at 10- 15 kft and below, so there should not be a
lot of depth the moisture. Therefore any rain shower activity that
breaks out is expected to be rather light and intermittent late
Sunday night into Monday morning. It does appear that all of
Sunday evening will be dry across the entire area, with perhaps
the first of the shower activity getting into far western areas
towards and just after midnight. The shower activity may briefly
get more coverage into the Monday morning commute but instability
does appear to be lacking down low and in the mid levels. Thus, at
this time QPF amounts look to be under a quarter inch, and
perhaps even below a tenth of an inch.

Towards Monday afternoon the global guidance consensus does show the
middle portion of the column drying out. Thus look for some
clearing, or at least breaks in the clouds Monday afternoon and
evening. A light onshore flow however may keep stratus and low clouds
in play, especially further to the southeast. Therefore uncertainty
in the cloud coverage / sky forecast remains for later Monday into
Monday evening. Temperatures should be relatively close to normal,
perhaps a few degrees above normal for the most part for Sunday
night and Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
*Key Points*

*Seasonable high temperatures for the period.

*Dry conditions expected Tuesday and Wednesday followed by unsettled
weather for week`s end and into the weekend.

Global ensembles are in generally good agreement with the synoptic
pattern through late week. Mid and upper ridging centered over the
northeast to begin the period flattens to a more zonal flow by
Thursday and Friday. This is the result of a sprawling upper low
taking shape over the central Canadian Maritimes, of Pacific origin,
slowly moving east Thursday into Friday and settling over eastern
Canada by the weekend. This will return us to a cooler and wetter
pattern toward the end of the long term period.

At the surface, high pressure centered over New England on Tuesday
shifts offshore by Wednesday. Interior sections will be warmest for
these two days under dry conditions with east/southeast flow keeping
coastal areas a few degrees cooler. Highs in the upper 70s to near
80, with low 70s for the coast.

By Thursday, a surface low north of Great Lakes, associated with the
aforementioned upper low heads slowly east. An associated warm front
approaches the area on Thursday. The front looks to remain near or
just to the north of the area into Friday as the parent low
occludes. Shower chances ramp up on Thursday morning and moreso by
Thursday afternoon with the front in the vicinity. Have maintained
thunder in the forecast as model soundings do depict some elevated
instability/CAPE Thursday afternoon. By Friday, the cold front
pushes through the area as the surface low heads east. Depending on
timing, another round of thunder may also be possible with any
precipitation associated with its passage.

After a brief respite possibly late Friday into early Saturday from
precipitation, additional showers are possible Saturday into Sunday
as the upper low continues to move very slowly east.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure gradually moves farther out into the Atlantic
during the TAF period.

Mainly VFR and dry conditions are expected through the TAF
period with possible MVFR for the 30 hr TAF sites, especially
going into the 24-30 hour forecast.

A general S-SW flow 5-10 kt initially increases to near 10-15
kt for the afternoon hours with sea breeze enhancement for some
coastal terminals. Some locations will have wind speeds of 5 kts
or less and variable direction at night into early morning.


     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Some gusts 15-20 kt possible in the afternoon.


OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Late Sunday Night: VFR. Low chance of MVFR in showers late and
mainly at the NYC metro terminals.

Monday-Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: VFR. MVFR or lower possible late day into the night
with showers.

Thursday: MVFR or lower possible in rain showers, slight chance
of thunderstorms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions will remain below SCA levels through the period. Seas on
the ocean will be 2 ft or less through Wednesday, and perhaps
getting closer to 3 ft towards Thursday. The ocean waters may
begin to approach SCA conditions with 4-5 ft waves late Thursday
into early Friday under enhanced southerly flow.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns throughout the forecast period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tide levels increase getting closer to mid week. Stevens
guidance shows minor flood benchmarks being approached as early
as Monday night. Thus, trends will need to be monitored in
subsequent cycles with minor coastal flooding will become more
likely for the south shore bays of Nassau, Queens, and Brooklyn,
along with Western LI Sound for CT, and Westchester towards
Tuesday.

Water temperatures remain around 60 degrees around the region.
This poses the threat for hypothermia to anyone immersed in the
water. Small boats, canoes, and kayaks should plan accordingly
if recreating this and use extreme caution to avoid this threat.

There is a low rip current risk through the weekend due to low
seas on the ocean and winds mainly 10 kt or less.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JE/DBR/DR
NEAR TERM...JE/DBR/DR/MET
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...JM/MET
MARINE...JE/DBR
HYDROLOGY...JE/DBR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...