386
FXUS61 KOKX 101741
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
141 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of surface troughs will pivot across through tonight,
then high pressure will build across for the first half of the
week. A cold front will approach on Friday and move through
Friday night, followed by high pressure next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Some forecast adjustments made per latest obs and CAM output.
A very comfortable air mass for this time of year will be in
control for today and tonight. A WNW flow will provide dry
conditions with low humidity. Expect a good deal of sunshine to
start. However, with an upper level low and cooler air aloft
expect more clouds to develop by the early afternoon as sfc
heating increases. A sfc trough pushes through early in the
afternoon which may aid in some buildup in cumulus cloud cover,
with some isolated to widely sct late day showers, in
particular across S CT.

The synoptic pressure gradient should provide enough of a WNW
flow to preclude much sea breeze intrusion this afternoon,
perhaps backing winds to the WSW-SW closer to the shoreline late
today. Overall, a partly to variably cloudy afternoon takes
shape with seasonable temperatures and low humidity.

For tonight, look for partly cloudy to mostly clear skies as
high pressure gradually builds from the west. Another sfc trough
pushes through during the evening, after which a more northerly
component takes shape. A light NW-N wind will provide continued
dry conditions with widespread 50s in outlying areas, and lower
60s in the metropolitan area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
For Tuesday with high pressure pushing in look for a weaker
synoptic pressure gradient. This should allow for more in the
way of sea breeze development for the afternoon. Temperatures
will be very similar to Monday with mainly middle and upper 70s
for daytime maxes. Again, quite comfortable with dew point
readings mainly in the lower half of the 50s with a fair amount
of sunshine. Spokes of upper level energy will pivot through
from time to time into Tuesday evening, but really shouldn`t
amount to anything in terms of sensible wx, with only intervals
of clouds anticipated from time to time.

For Tuesday night high pressure will be directly over the area
providing mainly clear skies. Temperatures once again will be
very comfortable with lows in the 50s again in outlying areas,
and upper 50s and lower 60s closer to the coast and in the
metropolitan areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
**Key Points**

* Big warmup for the second half the week, followed by a brief
  cool down for the weekend.

* Mainly dry conditions through the period.

* A frontal system to impact the area with showers and
  thunderstorms Friday and Friday night.

A trough quickly moves out on Wednesday with shortwave ridging
on Thursday. Afterwards, the upper flow flattens out with a
fast flow from the Northern Plains into the Northeast. This is
short-lived as another upper trough moves into the area to start
the weekend. At the surface, High pressure builds in for
Wednesday, giving way to a frontal system late Friday into
Friday night. High pressure then returns to start the weekend.
This will be a mainly dry period with the exception of the
frontal system at the end of the week.

The 00Z global guidance appears to be in close agreement on the
magnitude and timing of the upper trough swinging across the
Great Lakes and Northeast at the end of the week. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected on Friday with the
frontal system guided ahead of the upper trough. Based on the
NBM box and whisker temperature plots, the deterministic is
generally at the 25th percentile or lower, especially with
respect to high temps. So, this may not be as much of a cool
down behind the cold front as suggested by the 2m temps of some
of the 12Z operational guidance. Relatively speaking though, it
should be noticeable as Thursday and Friday climb well into the
80s and possibly the lower 90s for the interior. The 50th
percentile is even warmer for those days, so will have to see
where this trends. Given decent onshore flow projected, we can
expect heating to be limited at the coast. Typically at this
time of year, coastal locations need a decent westerly component
to achieve higher temps. The NBM deterministic blended with the
SuperBlend allowed a better representation on the temperature
gradient between the coast and the interior as the SuperBlend
had much cooler temperatures on the coast than the NBM. At this
time, max heat indices are forecast to stay below 90 on Thursday
and below 95 on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Weakening low pressure remains over the Canadian Maritimes as
high pressure builds in from the west through Tuesday.

VFR.

Winds likely remain W/NW with occasional gusts at the New York
City metro terminals. The is a chance winds at KJFK become more
SW to S as a sea breeze develops. Otherwise winds diminish this
evening, possibly becoming light and variable at the outlying
terminals. Late tonight light N flow develops and continues into
Tuesday morning.


  NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts may be more occasional 15-20 kt mid to late afternoon.

There is a chance that winds at KJFK become for SW to S as a sea
breeze develops mid to late afternoon.


OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday afternoon-Thursday: VFR.

Friday: Mainly VFR. MVFR possible in afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms.

Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure should provide a weakening pressure gradient and
thus fairly tranquil conditions across the coastal waters
through mid week with ocean seas generally around 2 ft. The
winds become southerly for the end of the week ahead of an
approaching frontal system with marginal small craft conditions
possible on the ocean Friday afternoon until Saturday morning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns expected attm.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
For the ocean beaches, the rip current risk will be low for NYC
and western Long, and decreasing from moderate to low this
afternoon for Suffolk. All the beaches should have a low rip
current risk on Tuesday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JE/BG/BR
NEAR TERM...JE/BG
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JE/BG/BR
HYDROLOGY...JE/BR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...