482
FXUS61 KOKX 241444
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1044 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be in control through tonight. A weak
frontal system moves through the area Saturday night into
Sunday. A series of frontal systems impact the area during the
first half of next week. An upper level disturbance may impact
the area towards the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The forecast is mainly on track. Only adjustment needed was to
lower the cloud cover over the southern zones for the remainder
of the morning.

Weak high pressure will be in control today with mostly sunny
conditions. A very weak cold front or trough will push into the
forecast area late today into this evening without much of any
consequence. Temperatures will remain well above seasonal
normals, ranging in the 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper ridging approaches from the Great Lakes tonight and moves
across the area Saturday and begins to weaken. With the slower
movement of systems in the northern stream precipitation with a
weak incoming frontal system will be delayed as the global
guidance is now indicating, along with the NBM. A warm front
passes to the north late Saturday into Saturday night with a
slight chance of showers. The area will then be warm sectored
with the system`s cold front slowly moving east Sunday. Much of
the area will be dry with a slight chance of afternoon
thunderstorms inland as these areas destabilize and with weak
lift and convergence in the east to southeast flow. Temperatures
remain above normal levels tonight through Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key points:

* Above normal temperatures on Sunday transition to near or slightly
  above normal Monday through Wednesday. The end of the week cools
  down a bit.

* Unsettled Monday-Wednesday with multiple frontal systems affecting
  the area.

Upper level ridging just to our west starts out this period. The
ridge axis crosses Sunday night. Meanwhile at the surface, high
pressure over the Canadian maritimes retreats farther into the
northwestern Atlantic. Over the Great Lakes region, low pressure
strengthens as it heads into southeastern Canada. An old frontal
boundary attached to this parent low will move north as a warm
front.

Monday night should be mostly dry for the entire area, with just a
slight chance for showers  for the western third of the forecast
area as the warm front moves toward the region. Better chances for
precipitation on Monday as the warm front advances. The warm front
does not look like it moves through until the first half of Monday
night, which will then be followed quickly by the associated cold
front.

Some lingering showers for eastern areas Tuesday morning with
the departing front, and showers start to enter the forecast area
from the west with the next front in the afternoon. Otherwise,
mostly dry conditions are expected.

A cutoff low dives south from south Central Canada and affect the
may affect the area as early as Wednesday morning or as late as
Thursday given which model you look at. Followed NBM closely given
uncertainty during this time frame.

Temperatures on Monday will be at or just below normal thanks to
clouds and rain. Tuesday will be a few degrees above normal thanks
to more in the way of sun, with cooler temperatures for Wednesday
and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front stalls in the vicinity and will linger nearby
this afternoon.

VFR through the TAF period.

Light and variable winds becoming S-SSW around 10 kt by 15Z-18Z
with sea breezes moving through (perhaps a bit stronger than 10
kt at KJFK). Uncertainty remains high as to how far inland any
sea breeze can get. Winds become light and variable for most
terminals overnight.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible for sea breeze timing and location. Most
likely moving through KJFK, but low potential to move through
other terminals.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday: VFR.

Sunday: Morning IFR/MVFR possible coastal terminals...otherwise VFR.


Monday: Chance of showers and possibly a tstm, with MVFR cond
possible.

Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected across the forecast waters today
through Sunday night. A complex frontal system that impacts the
waters Monday into Tuesday may allow for wind gusts of near 25
kt on the coastal waters late Monday into Monday night. Waves on
the ocean waters build to 4 to 5 ft late Monday night, but
quickly diminish by early Tuesday morning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A frontal system will impact the area Monday into Monday night,
potentially bringing several rounds of moderate to heavy
rainfall. There is a great deal of uncertainty with where the
axis of heavy rain will fall, however the highest chances will
be for the higher terrain north and west of NYC. The Weather
Prediction Center has placed most of the area in a marginal risk
for excessive rainfall, with areas north and west of NYC in a
slight risk.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Light winds becoming SW 5-10 kt today, and NE winds becoming S 5
to 10 kt Saturday along with 1 ft 9s southerly swell should
keep the rip current risk low through Saturday. This is also
supported by latest RCMOS at area beaches.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/MET
NEAR TERM...JC/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...JP/MET
HYDROLOGY...JP/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...