024
FXUS61 KOKX 021140
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
740 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front slowly advances through the area from the west this
morning and stalls this morning. It eventually washes out tonight.
Another cold front passes Thursday afternoon into early Thursday
evening. High pressure builds in behind the front Thursday night.
High pressure remains on Independence Day into the beginning of
the weekend. The high moves offshore late Sunday followed by a
pre- frontal trough and weak low pressure southwest of the area
Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A cold front is draped along the western edge of our CWA. This front
is expected to slowly advance eastward through a part of our area
this morning before stalling into the afternoon, then washing out
altogether, tonight. A passing shortwave will bring some pockets of
positive vorticity advection through the area early this morning in
mid-morning before exiting east by midday.

Scattered light rain/drizzle remains across the area early this
morning. PWATs are currently analyzed at 1.9-2 inches by SPC`s
mesoanalysis and have dropped a few tenths of an inch over the past
several hours as the cold front advances. Light rainfall may
continue for a large portion of the area into daybreak, but will
taper west to east through midday, as the front slowly advances with
drier air filtering in behind in helping to cut off precip. Dry
weather is expected for much the area by this afternoon with only
slight chances for a few lingering light showers along the southern
and eastern coasts this afternoon. Instability is expected to remain
poor through midday, so no thunderstorms are expected.

Partly sunny skies will return to much of the area this afternoon
and early evening as the front stalls or washes out across the
eastern portion of our area. A moisture gradient may still linger
over far eastern areas, keeping some cloud cover around eastern
Suffolk county and southern New London county into tonight. Mostly
clear skies are expected for the rest of the area tonight.

Temperatures today will end up cooler than what we saw yesterday.
Highs will be in the mid/low 80s with lows tonight in the low 70s to
mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
On Thursday, a long wave upper-level trough over Ontario & Quebec
amplifies as it rotates east into Quebec with surface low pressure
developing over eastern Quebec and the Canadian Maritimes. This
brings another cold front through the area Thursday afternoon into
early evening.

While much of the morning will be mostly sunny, partly to mostly
cloudy skies are expected in the afternoon as the cold front brings
with it a period of showers and thunderstorms. 00Z CAMs are wishy
washy on the amount of CAPE. However, they are consistent on only
marginal mid-level lapse rates with good 0-6 km bulk shear. With
marginal mid-level lapse rates (most 00Z CAMs range from 6.5-
7.1C/km) it may be difficult for some thunderstorm development, but
given enough CAPE, thunderstorm chances look decent. With ample
shear available (most 00Z CAMs have at least 30 kts, with some
pushing 60 kts) any thunderstorms that do occur could become strong
to severe with an isolated risk for damaging winds.

Given more radiational heating, highs will be warmer on Thursday,
reaching the low 90s to mid 80s. Lows Thursday night will cool to
near 70 to the mid 50s at the coast while interior areas will cool
into the low 60s.

Our Independence Day forecast couldn`t look better. High
pressure settles Thursday night following a cold front and
remains in place through Independence Day. Sunny skies are
expected with highs in the low to mid 80s. Clear skies remain
into Friday night allowing for good viewing of firework
displays.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Points:

* Dry and warm this weekend
* Becoming more humid to begin next week

Seasonably warm and dry to begin the weekend with a nice stretch of
weather. Towards late in the day Sunday and into Sunday night with
high pressure getting further offshore a more humid return flow gets
established. This will usher in higher dew points as it turns more
uncomfortable with high humidity levels for the early and middle
part of next week.

Global NWP guidance is in excellent agreement with a trough of low
pressure drawing closer later on Monday which will precede a cold
front well back to the west. The progression of the cold front may
slow leading to the trough lingering and potentially being a trigger
for diurnally driven convection in a very humid air mass. It remains
too soon to get into details, but scattered showers and
thunderstorms may develop for the afternoon and evening hours for
Monday, Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday of next week. The relatively
higher chance of diurnally driven convection would be further NW
across the area.

No significant changes were made to the extended forecast with NBM
guidance utilized.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front stalls over the area today, before moving east
tonight into Thursday morning.

VFR.

Winds get mostly to around 5 to 10 kt out of the W and NW this
morning. Later today (mainly this afternoon) coastal terminals turn
more SW with sea breeze development up to 10 kt. Cannot rule out
some occasional gusts for KGON and KISP late this afternoon, with
confidence too low to include in TAFs. The winds then become light
during Wednesday evening.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible into the afternoon with timing of sea breeze
related wind direction changes for KJFK and KLGA. Sea breeze not
expected to make it to KEWR and KTEB.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Thursday: Possible showers and thunderstorms with brief MVFR or
lower possible day into early eve, higher chances north and west of
NYC terminals.

Friday-Sunday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected on all waters under a weak pressure
gradient today through Friday night.

Tstms may pose a hazard of gusty winds, lightning, heavy rain,
and locally rough seas Thu aft/eve.

A light pressure gradient continues over the waters to begin the
weekend with tranquil conditions. By Sunday a return wind flow out
of the south takes hold with ocean seas around 3 ft. Other than
somewhat marginal small craft seas on the eastern ocean possible
Sunday night, sub advisory conditions are expected to prevail
through the weekend and into the start of next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A low pressure trough stalls nearby late Monday into Tuesday. With a
humid air mass in place and PWATs expected to be high
climatologically, isolated to scattered showers and storms could
produce localized heavy rainfall. Impacts remain unknown at
this time with details unknown this far out.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A high risk of rip currents continues into Wednesday due to a
southerly swell of 4-5 ft 7s. This will produce waves in the
surf zone of 3-5 ft. The swell will subside some heading into
Thursday with the risk expected to lower to moderate.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JE/BR
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JE/BR
HYDROLOGY...JE/BR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...