804
FXUS61 KOKX 200254
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1054 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure, along the northeast coast and extending into the
mid Atlantic region, will remain in place through Monday night,
and then begin to slide offshore Tuesday. Offshore high
pressure going into midweek gives way to an approaching cold
front Thursday. This cold front moves across Thursday night.
Weak high pressure returns to the local area thereafter for
Friday into Friday night. Another low pressure system may impact
the area next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Forecast on track with just a few minor adjustments to reflect
current observations.

Otherwise, expect a low chance of sprinkles or drizzle across
portions of southeast CT and far eastern Long Island during
the early part of the overnight. Added in more clouds for
western sections of the forecast region overnight. Slightly
increased forecast min temperatures.

An upper ridge extending from the lower Mississippi Valley into
the northeast remains in place as does a surface high along the
northeast coast into the mid Atlantic region. Low level light
northeast flow will keep an inversion in place through tonight
and with low level moisture in place, low clouds are expected
to remain. Drier air aloft and weak subsidence should keep most
of the area dry overnight, with the exception far eastern Long
Island and Southeast CT where light drizzle or sprinkles will
be possible. Temperatures will be fairly uniform across the
region with overnight lows generally in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The upper ridge remains Monday and begins to flatten as a weak
shortwave moves into the northern periphery of the ridge Monday
night into Tuesday. The surface high remain through Monday
night and slowly moves offshore Tuesday. Low level clouds in
place Monday morning will be slow to erode from the west to the
east and mixing increases, and the low level inversion is mixed
out. Low clouds across eastern Long Island and southeastern
Connecticut may not erode until around midday. Developing
southerly flow, and sea breezes will keep the coastal and
eastern areas relatively cool, near seasonal normals, while
inland areas warm into the upper 70s and around 80s, 5 to near
10 degrees above seasonal normals.

Monday night remains dry with near normal temperatures. An with
little low level moisture remaining in the area, mostly clear
conditions are expected. A weak return flow sets up Tuesday,
along with the airmass modifying under increased incoming solar
radiation. Inland temperatures will peak in the lower to mid 80s
with coastal areas in the lower to mid 70s. With dew points
remaining in the mid to upper 50s, the airmass will be
relatively dry with maximum apparent temperatures near afternoon
highs.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Some key points during this timeframe:

* Near 90 degree temperatures forecast away from the coast
  Wednesday. Some 90 to lower 90s high temperatures possible
  Wednesday. Temperatures a few degrees cooler forecast for Thursday.

* Chance of thunderstorms Thursday into Thursday night, possibly
  strong to severe across parts of the interior.

High pressure will remain across the area with its center well
offshore in the Western Atlantic Tuesday night through
Wednesday. This will eventually give way to an approaching cold
front Wednesday night into Thursday. The parent low attached to
this front will be weakening slightly as it moves north of the
Great Lakes.

Some substantial low level warm air advection is forecast for
both Wednesday and Thursday with steady SW flow. Well above
normal temperatures are forecast. Warmest day forecast for most
locations will be Wednesday with plenty of sun and 850mb
temperatures rising to around 16 to 17 degrees C according to
different large scale numerical weather prediction models.
Surface high temperatures are forecast to range from the lower
70s along the coast of Eastern Long Island to upper 80s across
parts of the interior and within parts of NYC. With forecast
dewpoints generally in the mid 50s to lower 60s, forecast heat
indices are right near the actual temperature.

Some guidance is indicating potential for Wednesday high
temperatures to be a few degrees higher than forecast so a few
90 or even lower 90s degree temperatures could very well be
possible.

High temperatures forecast on Thursday are more in the low 70s
to mid 80s range, with a lot of locations forecast to be
slightly cooler due to increased clouds. However, some locations
on Long Island are actually having high temperatures forecast
slightly warmer than the previous day due to some relatively
warmer air getting mixed down adiabatically.

There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms out ahead
and along the cold front for Thursday into Thursday night. The
cold front is forecast to move across Thursday night. Chances
for showers and thunderstorms decrease late Thursday night after
the cold frontal passage.

There is potential for some thunderstorms to be strong to
severe with the cold front with surface CAPE forecast to be up
to near 2000 J/kg and forecast 0-6 km AGL bulk shear of 35 to 45
kt. This combination is forecast to be across locations north
and west of NYC where temperatures will be relatively warmer.
No hydrologic concerns at this time as showers and thunderstorms
will be fast moving, really limiting total rainfall
accumulations.

Dry conditions are forecast Friday through Friday night with
the return of weak high pressure. High temperatures Friday are
forecast still to be above normal but cooler than the two
previous days, with a range mainly between 70 and 80 degrees for
much of the area.

Rain showers return to the forecast for next weekend but
probabilities are low initially with more of a chance for next
Sunday. This will be as another low pressure system makes its
approach and may get close enough to the local region to give
higher chances of rain.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Weak surface high pressure remains over the area through Monday.

VFR through at least midnight. MVFR cigs then expected to return
and is forecast to continue through the morning push. A return
to VFR is expected around 16z Monday.

Winds diminish tonight, becoming light and variable. Sea
breezes return late Monday morning, shifting winds SE-S near 10
kt.

   NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of MVFR cigs tonight and improvement Monday morning may
be off by an hour or two.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday-Wednesday: VFR. Chc S-SW gusts around 20kt both afternoons.

Thursday: VFR in the morning, then a chance of afternoon and evening
MVFR with showers and thunderstorms. Chc SW gusts around 20kt.

Friday: VFR. Chc NW gusts around 20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-advisory conditions are expected across all waters through
the end of next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the upcoming week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/MET
NEAR TERM...BC/JM/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JM/MET