979
FXUS61 KOKX 040759
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
359 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds southward from coastal New England into
midweek before shifting farther out into the Atlantic thereafter.
A series of frontal systems then approach from the west
Thursday through next weekend. A sprawling upper low drops into
the Great Lakes late this week, meandering toward the region
into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure building southward from Canadian Maritimes into
Northern New England. The local region is on the southern
periphery of the high with a resulting more onshore easterly
wind.

Some low clouds and fog remain along parts of Long Island and
Southern Connecticut. Some of the fog, particularly across parts
of Central Suffolk County is locally dense where visibilities
are less than 1 mile.

High pressure makes its way from Northern New England in the
morning to eventually south of Cape Cod early in the evening.

Morning low clouds expected to scatter out with fog burning off
with diurnal heating. A mostly sunny day is expected for most
locations but some low clouds may linger south of Long Island in
the afternoon.

The synoptic flow will be more southeast today, making for a
much more marine influence on the low level environment.
Temperatures gradient will be seen today from coastal
locations where high temperatures are expected to stay in the
70s to low to mid 80s across the interior.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
For tonight, high pressure will slowly move farther out into
the Atlantic. Onshore flow will continue but will become more
southerly. Min temperatures are not expected to decrease much,
with a range only from the upper 50s to lower 60s. The increase
in clouds and more in the way of fog development is expected to
limit radiational cooling.

Regarding the fog and low clouds, the more southeast flow will
enable this low level moisture to linger into a part of the day
Wednesday. Current forecast does not indicate fog for latter
half of the morning, but it will be possible. Otherwise, high
pressure will continue drifting out into the Atlantic. Across
the local region, a warm front will be drawing closer from the
south and west.

The southerly winds continue Wednesday but with more clouds and
potentially some showers, cooler temperatures are expected
compared to the previous day. Interior areas have high
temperatures forecast in the lower 80s with the rest of the
forecast region staying in the 70s. In addition to the chance
for showers, there will be a slight chance of thunderstorms as
well. This will be mainly confined to the westernmost parts of
the region, NYC, and locations north and west, which will be
relatively closer to the approaching warm front.

The warm front moves in Wednesday night into Thursday morning,
bringing with it widespread rain showers and embedded
thunderstorms from time to time. The omega in the low levels as
well as elevated instability are still factors in the models in
the late Wednesday night through Thursday timeframe, therefore
keeping the chance of thunderstorms in the forecast.

Associated area of low pressure traverses the local region
Thursday night, bringing a cold front across. The showers and
thunderstorms decrease Thursday night, with more drier air
getting entrained within the region as surface flow becomes more
westerly.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An unsettled long term with a closed low trough cutting off from the
flow over the Great Lakes to start the period, meandering nearby and
keeping clouds, periodic showers, and cooler conditions in place
through at least early next week.

While not an entire washout, the sprawling cutoff low will likely
instigate diurnal showers each day, especially inland. With the cold
pool aloft, also can`t rule out the possibility of thunderstorms.
The showers may be enhanced at times by shortwaves rotating around
in the flow, and periods of steadier rain are certainly possible
depending on the placement and strength of these features.

Temperatures, while hampered by cloud cover and rain at times,
should still manage to get into the 70s and lower 80s most
afternoons, or about typical for this time of year. Capped PoPs at
high chance (50%) thru the period given the inherent uncertainty in
this pattern and range, otherwise, stayed close to the national
blend.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure along the New England coast builds in today, with the
center lingering offshore into midweek.

Mainly VFR. Stratus and fog may develop at the coastal terminals
early this morning and lower cigs and vsbys to IFR/LIFR. Already
seeing this develop at KISP and KGON, but low confidence on just how
expansive this area becomes, so kept a TEMPO for these sites and
KJFK thru 12Z. Better chance of more widespread coastal cig and vsby
restrictions tonight into Wednesday morning with the persistent
onshore flow. Introduced IFR cigs after 6Z Wed at the city terminals
to highlight this.

The flow is light and variable at most locations to start, with ESE
flow developing later this morning, veering SE by the afternoon with
speeds at or under 10 kt. Winds become more southerly into Wednesday.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Possible brief IFR/LIFR into early this morning at KJFK.

Low confidence on timing of sub VFR conditions tonight into
Wednesday morning and this may be off by several hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday: Possible IFR or lower early in stratus and fog. Improving
to VFR during the day. MVFR or lower possible late day into the
night with chances of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday: MVFR or lower possible in showers and thunderstorms,
mainly during the daytime hours.

Friday: Chance of MVFR with showers and possible thunderstorms.

Saturday: Chance of MVFR in showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90


&&

.MARINE...
Conditions will continue to remain below SCA levels through
Wednesday night with a relatively weak pressure gradient in
place. SCA chances increase on the ocean Thursday into Thursday
night with non-ocean waters likely remaining below SCA
thresholds.

Ocean seas may linger near 5 ft early Friday before lowering under
weakening SW flow. Thereafter, conditions are expected to remain
below SCA levels through the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through Wednesday.

With precipitable waters still forecast to be near 2 inches
late Wednesday night into Thursday, some showers and especially
any thunderstorms could have heavy downpours. The potentially
torrential rain could cause minor flooding in low lying, urban
and poor drainage areas. With sufficient movement to showers and
thunderstorms, would still think much of the flooding potential
would be minor.

Total rainfall forecast Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
evening approximately a half to 1 inch with the possibility of
some locally higher amounts.

There are no significant hydrological concerns from Friday through
early next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Guidance all points to statement level events for the next few
evenings as tides increase astronomically. Most locations need a
1/2 to a 1 foot to reach minor coastal flood benchmarks. The
existing background anomaly looks to be sufficient enough to get
some of the more vulnerable locations across western LI Sound
and the south shore bays of LI right around these levels. A few
spots may also go 1 to 2 tenths above.

With the approach of a new moon this week, astronomical levels
will be on the rise. With winds becoming more southerly and
eventually southeasterly, this will allow for increasing surge
this week. This could lead to a bit more coverage as the week
hoes on.

There is a moderate rip current risk on the ocean beaches through
Wednesday due to around 2 ft seas on the ocean and onshore
south to southeast winds reaching up to near 10 kt.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/DR
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...JM/DR
HYDROLOGY...JM/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...