063
FXUS61 KOKX 110759
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
359 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold frontal boundary will slowly push south of Long
Island today into tonight. High pressure then builds in from the
north and east going into this weekend. A warm front approaches
early Sunday, followed by a cold front approaching Sunday night.
High pressure eventually returns early next week, building in
through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Expecting any patchy fog to burn off this morning with diurnal
warming and low levels mix.

A slow moving cold front boundary pushes farther south through
today. The frontal boundary will also be weakening. Looking
aloft, ridging is taking place as a shortwave and its associated
jet streak move farther northeast of the region. There won`t be
much steering flow.

CAMs depicting some shower and thunderstorm activity along
daytime trough developing across the interior with some
interaction with higher terrain. Convective initiation appears
to be delayed in some of the CAMs until mid to late afternoon.

The convection is expected to be isolated to scattered and
restricted to mainly north and west of NYC where there will be
higher CAPE.

More sun is expected but extra clouds with convection and some
easterly component to the flow will limit the high temperature
potential. Used a blend of MAVs and NBM, ranging mainly within
the 80s, highest across parts of the interior and NE NJ. Without
much change in dewpoint, heat indices reach a few degrees higher
than the actual temperature. However, they still max out in the
lower 90s range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
With the lack of synoptic forcing aloft tonight, would expect
any shower or thunderstorm activity to rapidly diminish this
evening with the loss of diurnal instability. Models are showing
some increase in shortwave activity late tonight into early
Saturday morning with some increase in upper level winds. Might
have a shower or thunderstorm across parts of the interior with
otherwise a mainly dry night expected.

Light southeast flow at the surface tonight as well as
abundance of clouds will help mitigate radiational cooling. Lows
forecast tonight will only be ranging mainly from upper 60s to
lower 70s. Another round of late night into early morning fog is
forecast, but kept more areas across the interior with coverage
more patchy elsewhere.

For the rest of this weekend, with daytime instability each day,
potential for showers and thunderstorms, mainly north and west
of NYC. Airmass remains very warm and humid but looks like heat
indices still expected to remain below advisory thresholds.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A broad mid level trough centered over the Upper Great Lakes
translates east into early next week, helping advance a frontal
system toward and through the region, bringing increased chances
for a more widespread rainfall, especially on Monday ahead of
the cold front. Parameters appear at least marginally supportive
of thunderstorm development, but steering flow appears
progressive enough to mitigate significant flood concerns.

Conditions dry behind the fropa into midweek as weak high pressure
drifts in and NW flow aloft looks to lower the humidity.
Temperatures through the period look to largely stay in the 80s most
afternoons thru early week, with a gradual warm up then into mid
next week.

National blended guidance was followed for this update.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A surface trough remains in the vicinity of the terminals through
tonight.

MVFR to IFR conditions are expected through day break. There is also
a chance for brief LIFR at KISP and KGON. Conditions will improve
back to VFR 12-15z. There is also a chance of a thunderstorm at KSWF
late afternoon and early this evening.

Conditions should start falling back to MVFR or IFR tonight, but
timing and extend are still a bit uncertain.

Light and variable winds early this morning will gradually become SE
after through the late morning/early afternoon. Wind speeds will
remain under 10 kt. Winds weaken again tonight.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Amendments
likely for changing flight categories through day break.

Timing of VFR after day break may be off by 1-2 hours where
categories do lower overnight.

Low confidence with flight categories tonight.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday night: MVFR or lower possible.

Saturday-Sunday: Mainly VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms
during the afternoon and early evening near and northwest of the NYC
terminals.

Monday: VFR. Showers and thunderstorms possible, mainly in the
afternoon and evening.

Tuesday: VFR. Showers or thunderstorm possible in the afternoon and
evening, mainly NYC metro on N and W.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Not much forcing and absence of a steep pressure gradient keeps
conditions below SCA thresholds on all waters through this
weekend.

Light flow and low seas should then maintain sub Small Craft
Advisory conditions on all coastal waters through early next
week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Any thunderstorm that develops could deliver a quick period of
heavy rain and localized minor flooding through this weekend.
Most locations expected to stay dry though.

No significant hydro concerns in the long term.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Rip current risk is low through Saturday along Atlantic facing
beaches with onshore flow 5-10 kt and a 3 ft swell from the
southeast at a 7-8 sec period.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JM/DR
HYDROLOGY...JM/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JM