096
FXUS61 KOKX 221953
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
353 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues to build in from the northeast tonight and
will remain in control through at least Tuesday. A frontal system
then approaches on Wednesday and moves across on Thursday. High
pressure slowly returns Friday and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Offshore low pressure is still slowly departing as high pressure
noses in from the northeast. Aloft, heights rise as a shortwave
ridge builds in. The ridge axis will pass overhead late tonight.

The orientation of the surface features will allow for the
persistent NE flow to continue, with the pressure gradient weakening
very gradually.

For lows tonight, went with the warmer NBM across the coast, LI, NYC
and northeast NJ as winds here will likely be a bit stronger.
Blended in some MOS guidance and NBM10th percentile to get cooler
temps up across the interior where winds will be lighter.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure remains in control through at least Tuesday.

The aforementioned upper level ridge axis will pass east early
Monday and a weak shortwave trough looks to swing through later on
Monday. Some of the guidance is hinting at some QPF Monday
evening for far wester locations, but went dry for now given
the dry NE flow that will be out ahead of any showers
approaching the area. Thinking if anything does reach the area
it may only be sprinkles and not measurable. Upper level ridging
builds back in for Monday night and Tuesday.

High temperatures on Monday and Tuesday look to be a few degrees
below normal for late September, upper 60s to low 70s. Lows Monday
night will be pretty similar to tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Points:

* Dry into Tue night.

* Chance of showers Wed into Thu with a passing frontal system.

* Greater likelihood of dry weather from Fri into the weekend.

Sfc high pressure nosing down from Atlantic Canada and ridging aloft
on Tue will both slowly give way to a frontal system from the west
during mid week. Chance PoP enters the forecast from NYC west
daytime Wed, overspreading the entire fcst area Wed night into Thu
morning.

By Thu, a complex pattern will have taken shape over North America,
with an omega block developing as upper ridging gets pinched off
over the upper Great Lakes region, one closed low moves across
Eastern Canada into the western Atlantic, and another closed low
remains nearly stationary over the Plains and the Mississippi
Valley. The low moving across Canada should send a back door front
down through on Fri, with sfc ridging once again nosing down from
ern Canada from that point on into the weekend.

Temps on Wed will be fairly close to normal, then above normal temps
expected from Thu into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure eventually builds southward into the area as low
pressure offshore slowly moves farther out to sea.

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with
exception of KGON, where MVFR stratus is forecast late tonight into
Monday.

There is a chance for widespread MVFR stratus late tonight into
early Monday. Have all terminals except for KSWF with at least
a tempo group for a part of the time, with terminals east of NYC
expecting to have a longer period of MVFR.

Winds will be NE near 5-10 kts through much of the TAF period. Gusts
near 20-25 kt east of NYC terminals forecast until early evening
with KGON having gusts last longer into tonight. KGON and KISP are
also forecast to have gusts 15-20 kt Monday late morning into
afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Occasional wind gust to 15-20 kt possible this afternoon and
this evening.

Timing of MVFR could be off by a few hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday: Mainly VFR.

Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: Chance of showers with MVFR possible. E wind gusts 15-20
kt day into eve.

Thursday: Chance of showers, mainly early, with MVFR possible.

Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Elevated long period swells from slow departing offshore low
pressure will continue for several days. A Small Craft Advisory
remains in effect on the ocean waters and has been extended through
Tuesday. This will likely continue to be extended over the next
several forecast cycles. Seas peak tonight through Monday around 6
to 8 feet and then slowly lower into the middle of the week.

An extended period of hazardous 5+ foot seas should continue into at
least Wednesday night. Seas may either subside below 5 ft by
Thursday, or seas may at least be confined closer to 20 nm offshore
and beyond.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next weekend. Basin avg QPF
from Wed into Thu night should range mostly from 1/4 to 1/2 inch,
with localized amounts of 1/2 to 1 inch possible in any heavier
showers.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Coastal flooding will continue into Monday, but impacts and areal
coverage will be on the downswing as astronomical tides continue to
lower. The offshore low responsible for the easterly swell that has
helped pile water into the area will work slowly southeast
through early next week. While astronomical high tides will
steadily lower over the next few days, easterly swells from the
low will continue to keep waters levels 1 1/2 to 2 1/2 feet
above normal. That being said, most locations need 2 to 3 ft of
surge to reach minor coastal flood benchmarks for the nighttime
high tide cycles, and 1 to 2 1/2 feet during the afternoon high
tide cycles. Based on these trends, after Monday afternoon, any
flooding should be localized through Tuesday and primarily across
the south shore back bays of western LI.

As for the surge guidance, Steven`s continues to be running
high in the back bays. Plan to still take an average of the
ETSS, ESTOFs, and Steven`s with some adjustments based on recent
performance. However, Steven`s is much slower in taking water
levels down. In some instances, Steven`s is about 1 to 1 1/2
feet higher. From past experience, the back bays can be slow to
drain with a persistent swell. So will have to watch the back
bays closely to see if the the minor flooding may hold into
Tuesday. Do not see any issues beyond that time.

For tonight, just have a coastal flood statement up for the S
Nassau and SW Suffolk. Lindenhurst tends to hold onto high
waters levels in a prolonged period of easterly swells and is
the main reason the statement is up for SW Suffolk.

For Monday`s high tide, advisories are in effect for Lower NY
Harbor, S Queens, and S Nassau, and portions of the coastline
adjacent to western LI Sound. To the east of these locations,
coastal flood statements are in effect for waters levels approaching
or just exceeding minor coastal flood benchmarks.

The high risk of rip currents continues Monday and Tuesday with
offshore low pressure still bringing long period E/SE swells.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     CTZ009-010.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM to 6 PM EDT Monday for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NYZ071>075-078-080-176>179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM to 6 PM EDT Monday for NYZ071.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM to 3 PM EDT Monday for
     NYZ074-075-178-179.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Tuesday afternoon for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NJZ006-106-108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM to 3 PM EDT Monday for
     NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BG/JT
HYDROLOGY...BG/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DW