913
FXUS61 KOKX 272014
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
414 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through this evening, then high pressure
over the Great Lakes will slowly build across through Friday
morning, and pass offshore Friday afternoon and night. A warm
front will approach on Saturday and lift into the area
Saturday night, followed by a cold front on Sunday. High
pressure will then return on Monday and last into the middle of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Sfc cold front just entering the lower Hudson Valley. Dry fropa
expected into this evening, with winds shifting NW-N and
clearing skies. CAA tonight and also blyr decoupling inland
late should lead to a cool night, with lows 50-55 inland and in
the Long Island Pine Barrens region, 55-6 most elsewhere, and
60-65 invof NYC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Suny as high pressure builds across. Winds will gradually veer
from N-NE early to S in the afternoon. With a cooler air mass in
place and onshore flow, high temps should be limited to 75-80.
Return flow Sat night should lead to temps not quite so cool as
those for Thu night, ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s

Expect increasing clouds thru the day on Sat as a warm front
approaches. Sped up timing of guidance PoP by a couple of hours,
with chance from NYC north/west in the afternoon, becoming
likely throughout during the evening. There is potential for
locally heavy rainfall given PW increasing to 2-2.5 inches.

Clouds and onshore flow should limit high temps on Sat to the
70s and lower 80s. WAA will keep temps Sat night on the warm
side and it will be muggy as dewpoints increase, with lows in
the upper 60s/lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front approaches on Sunday with a pre-frontal trough. While
not raining all day, the combination of the two features will bring
a good chance of showers both morning and afternoon with plenty of
moisture convergence in the vicinity. Moisture content will be high
through with models showing PWATS of 2.25 to 2.50 inches. Mitigating
the potential of flash flooding will be a relatively quick
unidirectional flow through the mid levels which will have showers
and storms moving relatively quickly and hampering the cell training
potential. See the hydrology section for more details.

Regarding thunderstorms, SBCAPES probably on the order of 1000-2000
J/kg with around 40kt 0-6km bulk shear. Strong wind gusts will
therefore be possible. Would have more confidence in the chance of
severe weather if the approaching trough aloft were progged to
arrive earlier as this would promote more conducive mid-level lapse
rates in the afternoon. Still something to keep an eye on as Sunday
draws closer.

850mb temps on Sunday range mostly 16-18C with models in pretty good
agreement that a narrow ridge of 19C reaches into NE NJ and perhaps
adjacent areas. With the high potential of rain and cloud cover, it
looks like highs there will be near 90 with 80s for the rest of the
forecast area. Dewpoints will be high, leading to max heat indices
generally a couple of degrees warmer than the high temperatures.

The cold front passes through late in the day Sunday or Sunday
evening and should be offshore by Monday morning. PoPs lower through
Sunday night, then dry weather for Monday. The dry weather then
continues through at least Wednesday with high pressure in control.
Much more comfortable dewpoints for Monday and Tuesday before a
little mugginess returns on Wednesday. The next cold front and pre-
frontal trough may impact the weather on Thursday. Will keep PoPs
at slight chance for now as per NBM, but if this setup holds, would
not be surprised to see PoPs trend higher for Thursday over the next
few days.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front will pass through by early this evening. High
pressure will then build slowly eastward tonight, and move
overhead Friday morning.

VFR, with scattered cumulus clearing out after cold fropa this
evening.

WNW winds 10-15 kt and gust to around 18-20 kt this afternoon.
Winds become N this evening and diminish to 5 -10 kt. Winds may
sea breeze at most coastal terminals Fri afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Uncertainty regarding KJFK sea breeze. KJFK Already briefly
turned SW before turning NW, again. TEMPO for SW wind until 24Z.

OUTLOOK FOR 20Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday: Chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly during
the afternoon, becoming likely at night. MVFR likely, IFR
possible, especially at night.

Sunday...Showers and thunderstorms likely, MVFR likely, IFR
possible.

Monday and Tuesday...VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA conds look increasing likely on the ocean and possibly the
south shore bays for Sat night into Sunday as SW flow
increases, with gusts up to 25 kt and seas peaking at 5-6 ft
late Sat night into Sunday morning. Ocean seas should remain
elevated into Sunday evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts of mostly 0.75 to 1.50 inches are expected from
Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon with locally higher
amounts possible. Minor poor drainage/urban flooding will be
possible. Flash flooding cannot be ruled out, but with the
forward speed of showers and probably a lack of training cells,
overall chances for flash flooding appear to be low.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A high rip current risk continues at the ocean beaches today.
The rip current risk for Friday will range from low to moderate. As
for Saturday, the risk will be mostly moderate, but a high risk is
anticipated for the ocean beaches of Brooklyn and Queens.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/BG
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...JC/BG
HYDROLOGY...JC/BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JC