842
FXUS66 KOTX 272122
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
222 PM PDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild, dry weather likely Friday, followed by heat Saturday. The
next system moves through Sunday, with more wind and
thunderstorms. Mountain showers and seasonal temperatures will
continue through the early week. The forecast trends warmer and
drier by the middle to the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Saturday: As the trough continues to exit the
region, rain shower and thunderstorm activity will decline through
the evening and overnight period. Ensembles are bringing ridge
pattern for the next couple of days. A few lingering showers over
North Idaho are possible through Friday morning. It will be followed
by a warming, dry trend through early Saturday afternoon. Winds will
generally be light and variable across the region. Highs will be in
the upper 70s and 80s. Lows will be in the 50s. /JDC

Saturday night to Thursday: The Inland NW will be in an active
pattern, with a series of waves of periodically passing and
bringing opportunities for precipitation and some breezy
conditions. With those breezy conditions, away from the areas that
have the potential for precipitation we will have to watch for
any fire weather concerns. Temperatures are forecast to be near to
slightly above seasonal norms. Saturday night into Sunday the
first most notable frontal wave moves in, with a leading warm
front lifting in near the start of the period and the cold front
and supporting upper trough on its heels around mid-Sunday. Rain
chances come to start around the mountain zones Saturday night and
expand over a larger portion of northeast Washington and the
higher Palouse Sunday afternoon and evening. Embedded t-storms
will be also be possible in the afternoon. There is a little bit
of shear, around 20-30kts, and modest SBCAPE over northeast WA and
north ID at around 100-900 J/kg. So a few isolated stronger
t-storms cannot be ruled out, especially toward the northern
mountain zones and the northern Panhandle. So if there are any big
plans or events you will be attending Sunday afternoon, keep an
eye to the sky. Winds will increase through the afternoon across
much of the region, with sustained winds of 10-20 mph and gusts of
25-30 mph. The strongest winds are forecast around the Cascades
to the Upper Columbia Basin.

From Monday to Thursday a series of smaller shortwave
disturbances pass through the region. This will keep the risk for
periodic showers and isolated embedded t-storms alive each
afternoon, but largely over the northeast WA and north ID
mountains and near the ID/MT border. Some of the details may
change as we get closer. The west-northwest flow will also bring
continued breezy conditions, especially Monday and Tuesday
afternoon with the strong winds still near the Cascades and
central Washington.

For fire weather concerns, with breezy conditions each afternoon
we will be keeping an eye on regional RH forecasts. As they stand
now, the afternoon RH values are above critical values by about
10 or so percentage points. However some outlier guidance show
some lower values. Overall, the stronger winds are expected in the
afternoon hours between Sunday and Tuesday. Areas to watch closer
will be near the lee of the Cascades and central WA, such as near
Wenatchee, the Waterville Plateau and Moses Lake area, for the
combination of wind and RH values approaching critical values.
/Solveig

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Breezy westerly winds will continue through the
afternoon with gusts between 20-30 kts, with better mixing
potential in the afternoon. Scattered showers and embedded
thunderstorms will increase through the early afternoon for
Northeast Washington and North Idaho and reaching into the Spokane
and Pullman areas. Impacts possible are heavy rain, lightning,
and small hail.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
High confidence in VFR conditions through the TAF period. There is
a moderate chance for thunderstorms across the Spokane/Coeur
d`Alene corridor in the afternoon. These areas could experience
brief periods of MVFR conditions with ceilings under 3000ft. /JDC

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        48  77  54  82  58  82 /  10   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  48  74  53  80  57  78 /  10   0   0   0  10  20
Pullman        47  73  51  81  56  78 /  10   0   0   0  10  10
Lewiston       55  82  59  91  65  88 /  10   0   0   0  10  10
Colville       40  75  46  79  49  79 /  10  10   0  10  10  50
Sandpoint      46  72  50  78  52  76 /  40  10   0   0  20  40
Kellogg        50  71  55  80  60  74 /  10   0   0   0  20  30
Moses Lake     50  82  58  86  57  86 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      54  81  63  83  61  83 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           50  83  58  83  58  86 /  10   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$