861
FXUS66 KOTX 251053
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
353 AM PDT Sat May 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will continue across the Inland Northwest through
Saturday. Saturday will breezy with west to southwest wind gusts
of 25 to 30 mph. Dry weather returns on Sunday and Monday with
temperatures warming back into 70s and 80s. A return of cool, wet
weather is expected to return midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Sunday: A trough will push through the region over the
period. Main impacts will be the winds across the Basin and
mountain showers. Ensembles are showing a tightening pressure
gradient from the Cascades to the Waterville Plateau. The gradient
loosens East across the Basin. Winds will be strongest in the
Cascade Valley and Western Basin. Sustained winds will be in the
20 to 30 MPH range. Gusts will generally be in the 30s. Some areas
could see localized gusts into the 40s as probabilities are near
50% for 40+. As the winds spread East, they weaken to sustained in
the teens gusts into the 20s. Probability of 30+ is 30% or less
for areas in the Eastern Basin. The trough passage will also bring
more showers to the mountain portions of the region. Afternoon
thunderstorms are again possible for North Washington and Idaho as
Cape values of 150+ J/kg are being forecast. Highs for the day
upper 50s and 60s. Cooler air behind the trough will bring a frost
threat to the northern Washington valleys and Idaho Palouse
areas. Cloud cover will play a role in how low temperatures drop.
Lows will be in the 30s to upper 40s.

Lingering shower activity will diminish through the morning
hours. A ridge begins to build into the region as it stabilizes
behind the trough. Highs will be in the 60s to low 70s. Overnight
lows will be in the upper 30s and 40s. /JDC

Monday through Friday: A ridge will begin to amplify over the
region on Monday, eliminating any shower chances and sending
temperatures well into the 70s and even low 80s for some spots.
With a light breeze of 5 to 15 mph and partly sunny skies, Monday
will be a beautiful day for any outdoor plans. The Inland
Northwest will remain under the influence of the ridge through
Tuesday afternoon, so high temperatures will be similar to those
on Monday, ranging from the 70s to low 80s.

A cold front is expected to sweep in from the Pacific Tuesday
evening, increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms ahead of
and along the front. The Cascade Crest, eastern third of WA, and the
ID Panhandle have a 30 to 60 percent chance of showers Thursday
afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms will be possible as well for
the eastern third of WA and ID Panhandle during this timeframe.
Chances for thunderstorms range from 20 to 40 percent and generally
increase the further east you get.

Following the passage of the cold front, temperatures will drop back
down to seasonal normals in the 60s to low 70s Wednesday and
Thursday. A trough tracking through the area will keep chances for
showers in the forecast along the periphery of the region (over the
Cascade Crest, along the Canadian border, in the ID Panhandle, and
down to Pullman and Lewiston) through the end of the week. /Fewkes

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Frontal passage overnight will bring a 20 percent
chance of light rain to Spokane, Coeur d`Alene, Pullman, and
Lewiston between 07-14z. Moisture will be quite limited with the
best chance of ceilings below 3000 feet at Coeur d`Alene and
Pullman for a few hours shortly after sunrise. Showers between 18z
and 04z will be mainly concentrated along the Canadian border
with a 30 percent or less chance at the TAF sites.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
Over the last several model runs, precipitation chances have
trended down while the wind speed and gusts have increased. Makes
sense as the trend has been for the main upper trough to remain
north of the Canadian border...which favors wind over widespread
precipitation. /GKoch

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        62  40  65  44  73  50 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  59  39  61  44  72  50 /  40  30   0   0   0   0
Pullman        57  38  62  43  72  50 /  10  10   0   0   0  10
Lewiston       67  44  71  49  80  56 /  20  10   0   0   0  10
Colville       62  33  65  38  72  43 /  80  40  10   0   0   0
Sandpoint      57  40  59  42  69  46 /  70  50  10   0   0   0
Kellogg        56  41  58  45  70  52 /  80  30  10   0   0  10
Moses Lake     69  41  71  44  78  53 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      65  47  68  48  77  55 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           69  40  70  45  76  50 /  20  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$