633
FXUS66 KOTX 172308
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
408 PM PDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue each
day through mid week especially up in the mountains. A warming
trend is expected through the week, with high temperatures
rebounding into the mid 80s to mid 90s on Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Monday night through Tuesday: The center of the upper level low
will move to the east this evening, leaving the Inland Northwest
under a broad rex block pattern with an upper level ridge over
western Canada and broad troughing over the western US. A tight
cross-Cascade pressure gradient will support breezy to gusty winds
through the Cascade valleys and into the western Columbia Basin
through this evening with wind gusts up to 40 MPH around the
Wenatchee area and the Waterville Plateau. Showers will decrease
in coverage after sunset and shift over the Idaho Panhandle, where
they will linger through the night.

There were a handful of spots across northeast Washington and north
Idaho and even into Spokane County (Cheney, Deer Park) where the
low temperatures Monday were poorly handled by the NBM with
observed temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s. Even after
manually lowering the lows by a couple degrees across northeast
Washington and north Idaho, lows do look to trend a bit warmer
tonight in response to continued cloud cover with lows generally
in the upper 30s to low 40s. Places such as Colville, Republic,
Cusick have the best chances to see low temperatures below 36
degrees with Colville having a 54% chance, Cusick 24% chance, and
Republic a 13% chance.

Despite remaining under an unstable, northwest flow aloft through
Tuesday, the coverage for afternoon showers will shrink to
primarily north-central Washington to north Idaho where moist,
upslope flow aids in development. Showers will be capable of
producing brief downpours, lightning, and small hail. Temperatures
will begin to gradually warm on Tuesday with highs in the upper
60s to mid 70s. /vmt

Wednesday through Monday: A weak trough will linger over the
Inland Northwest for Wednesday and Thursday. Chances for showers
(POPs less than 50%) will linger across the northern mountains
Wednesday, becoming less likely on Thursday. Even with the trough
and shower chances, temps mid-week will still be increasing
several degrees above our cool early week readings. The even more
dramatic warm-up (combined with dry conditions) will occur from
Thursday into the weekend, with high temps expected to peak on
Saturday at 10+ degrees above normal for many locations. Extended
range models indicate a cold front passing through early next
week. Temps will again turn cooler, especially for Monday. Precip
chances will also return, but the best chances will be mainly
confined to the mountains. The frontal-associated winds with the
still-warm Sunday temps may warrant watching over the next few
days regarding any elevated fire weather concerns. /KD

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Showers and isolated thunderstorms across eastern
Washington and north Idaho will continue through the evening.
Chances will shift to southeast Washington and the Idaho
Panhandle after 05Z, with the potential to impact KPUW/KLWS
through 08-09Z. Persistent gusty winds will continue through the
Cascade valleys and the lee of the Cascades through the evening
with gusts up to 30 knots. Models continue to suggest the
development of marginal VFR ceilings to develop across far
northeast Washington and north Idaho between 12 to 20Z on Tuesday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There is a 30-40%
chance for ceilings below 3000 feet at Coeur d`Alene, Sandpoint,
Bonners Ferry from 12Z to 19Z.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        43  68  44  76  49  82 /  40  50  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  43  64  43  73  47  81 /  60  60  20   0   0   0
Pullman        41  65  41  73  46  80 /  60  20   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       48  73  49  82  53  88 /  50  20   0   0   0   0
Colville       36  66  38  73  41  81 /  70  80  40  20   0   0
Sandpoint      42  59  40  69  45  78 /  70  90  60  20   0   0
Kellogg        45  59  45  71  49  78 /  70  70  10  10   0   0
Moses Lake     44  76  46  81  53  88 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      49  75  52  79  55  85 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           44  74  47  79  50  86 /  40  30  20  20   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$