Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
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561 FXUS66 KOTX 141116 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 416 AM PDT Fri Jun 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Today will be dry and breezy as a cold front moves through the region. Precipitation chances will increase Friday night into Saturday with light snow down to 5000 feet over the Cascades and northeast Washington. Breezy to gusty winds along with isolated thunderstorms and rain showers are expected Saturday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will trend cooler into early next week with the potential for frost in colder pockets Sunday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Saturday Night: A closed low just to the west of Vancouver Island today will send a dry cold front across the region this morning. Dry, breezy west to southwest winds behind the front will promote an elevated fire environment across much of Central and Eastern Washington especially across the Columbia Basin. Yet conditions are a little shy of critical thresholds and thus no fire weather highlights are in effect. For tonight into Saturday the closed low pushes east across northern Washington and southern British Columbia. Continued cold advection will keep the winds elevated into Saturday, with gusts of 25-40 MPH across much of the region. The highest gusts will occur along the East Slopes of the Cascades, through the Wenatchee area, Columbia Basin, West Plains, and Palouse. In addition, cooling aloft with the passing low will destabilize the atmosphere on Saturday resulting in increasing showers and isolated afternoon thunderstorms over the region. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing infrequent lightning, gusty winds, brief downpours, and small hail. The other story will be the cooler temperatures. Snow levels fall to 4000-5000 feet Saturday morning, with a 50-70% chance of light snow over Stevens, Sherman, and Washington Passes. Yet the chances for 1" or more from 5 AM Saturday to 5 AM Sunday is only 15-30% given the warmer ground temperatures and high sun angle of mid- June. Yet, those hiking in the mountains should be prepared for cold temperatures and light snow. Lastly, as the showers fizzle Saturday evening, models have the skies clearing out over most of the region with decreasing winds. This may allow patchy frost to develop in the northern mountain valleys, and portions of the Upper Columbia Basin, Palouse, and Camas Prairie. Those with sensitive plants in these areas may have to take action to protect plants from frost as lows drop into the mid 30s. JW Sunday through Thursday: With low pressure across the Inland Northwest, expect cooler than normal daytime temperatures and chances for showers and even a few thunderstorms early next week. The best chances for precip look to be across the Cascades, northern WA mountains, and northern Idaho. Even some light snow is forecast above 4500 feet across the Cascades Sunday. Some patchy frost is possible Sunday morning across areas that are typically susceptable, particularly across our sheltered northern valleys. Forecast becomes more uncertain for Wednesday and Thursday, but most model solutions indicate the beginning of a drying and warming trend. /KD && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFS: An incoming trough will bring cooling and increasing winds. Winds will begin to pick up early this morning across the region. Wind gusts 30 to 40 mph will be common in the lee of the Cascades around KEAT and then across the west Plains for Spokane, Felts Field, Coeur d`Alene Friday afternoon. Winds will decrease around 02z but remain steady overnight with stronger winds and more widely scattered showers in the forecast for Saturday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There is high confidence in continued VFR conditions through 12z Saturday. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 73 49 64 40 63 42 / 0 0 50 20 20 10 Coeur d`Alene 72 47 61 39 62 41 / 0 0 60 20 20 10 Pullman 68 45 60 37 59 41 / 0 0 40 20 0 10 Lewiston 80 52 71 45 70 49 / 0 0 30 0 0 10 Colville 74 44 62 33 59 35 / 0 10 80 30 40 20 Sandpoint 72 46 59 37 58 39 / 0 0 70 50 30 20 Kellogg 69 48 55 40 57 44 / 0 0 70 30 20 20 Moses Lake 77 51 69 39 68 46 / 0 0 20 0 10 10 Wenatchee 73 52 66 44 66 48 / 0 0 20 0 10 10 Omak 79 48 69 40 66 43 / 0 10 40 0 30 20 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$