Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
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990 FXUS66 KOTX 121005 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 305 AM PDT Wed Jun 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures today will be close to average with highs in the 70s across most of the Inland Northwest. Thursday will be warm with light winds. A cold front is expected to bring more breezy conditions Friday and Saturday. The weekend and early next week will be cool with the chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... Today and tonight: Thankfully, there will be less wind today. By late this morning, the cold front that buffeted our region with wind yesterday will be making its way through the Dakotas into Minnesota. Much of the Inland Northwest will experience west or southwest winds of 5 to 15 mph today with gusts up to 20 mph across the West Plains, southwest mountain aspects, and through the Cascade gaps late in the day. Afternoon temperatures will be cooler than yesterday as well with highs ranging from the low 70s in north Idaho to the upper 70s in central Washington and the L-C Valley. Readings will be very close to average for early to mid June. The atmosphere will be quite dry from top to bottom with very few clouds and afternoon relative humidity between 15 and 25 percent. As high pressure builds over the Inland Northwest tonight, light winds, clear skies, and low dewpoints will allow temperatures to dip below average. Low temperatures in the 40s will be common region-wide with mid to upper 30s in places like Deer Park, Colville, Priest Lake, and Republic. Thursday: Output from the National Blend of Models (NBM) predicts that Thursday will be our warmest day between now and the first day of summer (June 20th). A shortwave high pressure ridge will migrate over the Pacific Northwest Thursday delivering a small dose of the warmth that has been over California. Highs will reach the upper 70s and 80s...an impressive warm up after morning lows in the 40s. Residents of central and eastern Washington won`t know what to do with a day without wind. It will be a truly depressing day for kite fliers and wind turbine operators with winds of 5 mph or less. Friday: Breezy southwest winds will return by Friday afternoon as a weak, dry cold front arrives. With highs in the 70s and afternoon relative humidity in the 15 to 25 percent range, grass/brush fires will be a concern again. Humidity levels Friday will be comparable to our active wildfire day on Tuesday, but temperatures from the NBM are 5 to 10 degrees cooler than Tuesday`s highs. Winds won`t be as strong either. Fortunately, neither the GFS MOS or the ECMWF ensemble members produce as much wind Friday as we had on Tuesday. Sustained winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts of 25 to 35 mph are advertised by the aforementioned guidance with the highest gusts over the West Plains, Wateville Plateau, and US-2 corridor in the Upper Columbia Basin. /GKoch Saturday through Tuesday: Expect a pattern shift over the weekend into early next week as low pressure drops down from British Columbia. Gusty winds are expected Saturday, with cooler temps and chances for showers also arriving this weekend. Wind speeds of 15-30 mph, with gusts of 30 to 40 mph are currently forecast for Saturday, especially across the Cascade gaps into the Waterville Plateau and Columbia Basin. This could certainly lead to some elevated fire weather concerns, though the cooler temps should keep RH values from getting too terribly low. The best chances for precip look to be across the Cascades, northern WA mountains, and northern Idaho from late Saturday into early next week. After our period of above normal temps, daytime readings are forecast to drop below normal for Saturday through at least Monday. Some patchy frost possible Sunday morning across areas that are typically susceptable. /KD && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail. Winds will continue to decrease through 08Z, with lighter winds for Wednesday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 73 45 80 54 74 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 71 45 79 52 73 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 69 43 77 51 69 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 79 50 87 58 80 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 74 38 79 45 75 43 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 71 43 76 48 71 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 68 48 77 56 69 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 79 45 84 52 77 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 77 50 81 54 73 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 79 47 82 51 79 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$