Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
820 FXUS64 KOUN 272301 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 601 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Our forecast area will start getting back into an active pattern late tonight into the long term. As high pressure exits to the east, a surface low deepening across far western Texas will start shifting our winds out of the southeast. Our southeast low-level flow will bring a return of gulf-based moisture transport through north Texas tonight and further northward into Oklahoma on Tuesday. The moisture return will also sharpen up a dryline which will linger across eastern New Mexico keeping our area in a moist unstable environment. Yesterdays Summer Pacific cold front is stalled out across northcentral Texas and expected to remain stationary until perhaps late this week. In the upper levels, northwest flow aloft is returning with a weak ridge building over the Western U.S. For late this evening and overnight, we could see storms develop across northern Texas into southern Oklahoma. Confidence is low of seeing any convection until late this evening. Model soundings suggest afternoon heating may weaken but not erode the inversion cap although a weak southeasterly low-level jet will start strengthening after sundown over western north Texas through southwest Oklahoma. With the surface low and stalled frontal boundary stretched across central Texas and a potential of the low-level jet breaking the cap in a moderate (to near strongly) unstable and strongly sheared environment, could see severe storms initiate across northern Texas late evening which could impact our areas near and south of the Red River overnight. After midnight, the first of what will be several mid-level shortwave disturbances digging down from the High Plains will be coming through resulting in low yet widespread storm POPs across our entire area with increasing probabilities (40-70%) well into the afternoon Tuesday. In addition to elevated storms, models in consensus with strong isentropic upglide in the lower through mid- levels (305-315 K surfaces) starting early Tuesday so plenty of ascent in the lower levels from warm advection. With warm advection increasing into our southern CWA early Tuesday morning, the severe risk will include southwest through southcentral Oklahoma after sunrise Tuesday. Storms capable of producing large hail (up to golf balls) and damaging wind gusts (up to 60 mph) will be the severe hazards in the risk area late tonight through Tuesday afternoon. However, the severe risk may gradually shift more out of our area and into central & eastern Texas as the afternoon progresses. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 We will continue to see shortwaves across our area as the weak upper ridge gradually builds over the Southern Plains through Thursday. Warm advection will persist north of the stalled frontal boundary across central Texas which may eventually lift as a warm front into our area late this week (Thursday/Friday). The Southern Plains will remain situated well east of the dryline so the moisture & potential instability won`t be going away through the long term. As our weak ridge exits on Thursday, weak troughing will start digging through the western U.S. although models deviate with the eastern progression of the trough by Sunday. However, we`ll continue to have shortwaves expelled downflow from the trough. With all the forcing & moisture, we`ll remain in a "wet" pattern through this weekend with storm POPs every day through early next week. Although deep-layer shear will be on a decreasing trend by Wednesday for organized convection, moderate CAPE values may be sufficient for at least strong to low-end severe storms. Accumulating rainfall each day could start to pose a flooding risk toward the latter part of this week, especially across our southern CWA which could see 4-5 inches storm total rainfall accumulations through Friday. Can`t rule out a flood watch being issued in the next couple of days. Temperaturewise, we`ll see a cooling trend with mild temperatures falling slightly below seasonably average with the increasing cloud cover and rain potential. However, upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints will still make it feel humid through much of the southern half of our forecast area. Our cooling trend may end this weekend and becoming hotter again by early next week back into the upper 80s/lower 90s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 559 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 VFR/MVFR ceilings this TAF period. Winds will generally be from the E and SE. Storms are expected to develop overnight/early Tuesday and continue across portions of the area throughout the day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 66 81 63 79 / 20 50 60 60 Hobart OK 66 82 63 80 / 30 70 70 60 Wichita Falls TX 68 84 66 80 / 30 70 70 60 Gage OK 61 82 60 78 / 20 50 70 50 Ponca City OK 62 81 61 80 / 20 30 30 30 Durant OK 66 83 66 80 / 30 50 60 60 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...68 LONG TERM....68 AVIATION...25