059
FXUS64 KOUN 021559
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1059 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE WEATHER... Issued at 1059 AM CDT Sun
Jun 2 2024

Near-term forecast has undergone some complications this morning.
Convection across the eastern Texas panhandle, rather than dying
out, has intensified and begun propagating eastward across the Red
River Valley of southwest Oklahoma. The likely culprit appears to be
two-fold - first, a surge of greater boundary layer moisture with
dewpoints in the low 70s in southern Oklahoma; and secondly, the
development of an MCV from the panhandle storms to aid in forcing
for convection to develop. While no convection-allowing models have
handled this turn of events well, short-range guidance shows MLCAPE
increasing from 1,500-2,000 J/kg this morning to nearly 4,000 J/kg
(almost certainly overdone thanks to widespread anvil shading in
reality, but still a signal of the increasing moisture/lapse rates
aloft) by noon.

The ongoing storms will continue to propagate eastward along the
developing MCV throughout the rest of the morning and into early
this afternoon. The severe risk will be on the sporadic side due to
the weak nature of overall deep-layer shear. Still, hail to the size
of quarters, damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph, frequent cloud-to-
ground lightning, and heavy rainfall will all be possible with this
activity as it approaches I-35 along and south of I-40. It`s
possible the activity will begin to weaken this afternoon as it
approaches southeast Oklahoma. Then our eyes will turn to potential
next rounds of severe weather.

Meister

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 136 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Much less convective activity this morning than what was
anticipated. Most of what is out there is expected to dissipate this
morning with again mainly dry conditions across the area through
much of the day. Although with the amount of instability that will
be present, if any weak residual low level boundaries survive into
the afternoon or there is some differential heating boundary an
isolated shower/storm can not be ruled out.

By afternoon, attention turns to potential convective development
along the dryline, which looks to be near I-27 by late in the day.
Models differ with amount of convective development and also what
does occur, just how far east this activity will make it. Best
chances appear to be across western and southwest Oklahoma, perhaps
continuing across the Red river valley through the night Sunday
night.

Farther north, convection will initiate near a surface cold front
from South Dakota southward into northern Kansas. Some of this may
try to make a run at northern Oklahoma late Sunday night into early
Monday.

Otherwise, warm and muggy conditions expected today and tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 136 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

May have a triple point to play with Monday afternoon across
northwest Oklahoma with a weak surface low connecting both the weak
front across Kansas and a dryline that will be located across
western Oklahoma. Storms may form by afternoon near this
intersection and then expand east and southeast into central and
then eastern Oklahoma by evening.

Surface boundary will still be in place as we go through the day
Tuesday, along with the dryline and may see more isolated
development along these boundaries Tuesday afternoon and evening
from central into northeast Oklahoma. Does appear to be some upper
support as trailing end of shortwave trough traverses the area.

By the middle of the week mid-level ridge builds east out of the
Rockies into the Plains as large upper low moves through the Great
Lakes region. This will initially bring warmer temps to the area
with most of Oklahoma and north Texas warming into the 90s with only
minimal rain chances. We also remain on the fringe of northwest flow
and by late in the week models bring another surface front south
into the area, which may bring slightly cooler air and at least some
additional rain chances for the end of the week into the following
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Low clouds have developed across southwest Oklahoma and western
north Texas this morning with mainly VFR to near MVFR ceilings.
Thunderstorms are moving across far northwest Oklahoma so
have added a mention of TSRA at WWR through about 14Z. A breezy
southerly wind will develop at all sites this morning and continue
through the afternoon. Thunderstorms may develop across West Texas
this afternoon and move into western and central Oklahoma after
00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  87  70  88  70 /  50  30  40  30
Hobart OK         88  68  94  69 /  70  30  10  20
Wichita Falls TX  88  71  92  71 /  60  30  10  10
Gage OK           91  66  95  66 /  20  30  10  10
Ponca City OK     87  69  87  69 /  30  40  50  40
Durant OK         88  72  87  71 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...06