594
FXUS64 KOUN 151900
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
200 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 158 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

    - Low rain chances this evening in western Oklahoma.

    - Above average temperatures much of this week

    - Rain chances mid-week and higher rain chances late this
      week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

A few isolated showers/storms may develop later this afternoon and
evening affecting parts of western OK and western north TX. With
coverage expected to be minimal and some question on whether this
activity will develop, chances are very low (around 10%) but do have
a mention of isolated showers/storms in the forecast although most
locations will stay dry.

Temperatures are expected to fall into the 60s to around 70 across
the area tonight. Above average temperatures are expected Monday
with highs ranging from the mid 80s to mid 90s with the hottest
temperatures in parts of southwest OK and western north TX.

Isolated showers/storms may be possible again Monday in NW parts of
the fa, but chances are currently low enough that do not have a
mention in the forecast. However, something that later shifts will
have to keep an eye on.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Above average temperatures are expected to continue through much of
the upcoming week. Models show an upper ridge over the region for
the first part of the week. Meanwhile, a longwave trough develops in
the western U.S. This trough is expected to lift NE into the
northern Plains towards the middle part of the week. The southern
end of the trough will bring a chance for showers/storms to parts of
western and northern OK Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Models show another mid/upper trough moving across the SW U.S. into
the central/southern Plains towards the end of the week into next
weekend. There are some differences in timing and path of this
system so not high confidence in the forecast but it does look like
this will be the best chance for more widespread showers and storms
across the fa.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Generally southeast to easterly winds will continue through the
TAF period. Northwest Oklahoma may see some breeziness this
afternoon and early evening. VFR conditions will prevail.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  64  87  65  88 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         67  93  65  94 /  10   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  68  94  66  94 /  10   0   0   0
Gage OK           64  93  64  94 /  10  10  10   0
Ponca City OK     63  89  63  89 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         64  89  66  89 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...14