Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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965 FXUS64 KOUN 151702 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1202 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1200 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 - Low rain chances this evening in western Oklahoma. - Above average temperatures much of this week - Rain chances mid-week and higher rain chances late this week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Have had some cumulus development from Kansas into north central Oklahoma this morning, but the axis has shifted east over the last few hours toward eastern Kansas and eastern Oklahoma. The convective-allowing models are not as aggressive this morning with convection, but it is still worth including some low POPs in north central Oklahoma for this morning. This afternoon and evening, an anticyclone in the 750/700 mb level over Texas shifts slowly northeast, but this allows increasing moisture near and below 700 mb to move west and then north into western Oklahoma and the panhandles. A number of the models suggest some convective development late this afternoon or this evening across the west as this moisture increases, although the QPF signal looks rather aggressive without significant forcing. Explicit POPs from MOS or NBM are not terribly high. It seems like enough potential for convection to at least mention isolated showers/thunderstorms, but at the moment it seems like coverage would be rather low and will keep POPs below 20 percent. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 The upper ridge builds in the southern Plains early this week and sets the stage for warm temperatures this week. However a longwave trough is forecast to develop in the western United States and the upper ridge flattens somewhat this week as this trough ejects into the northern Rockies and northern Plains. Although the main part of this system will remain well to the north, some residual vorticity advection with the weakening southern part of the trough brushes northwest Oklahoma on Tuesday night/Wednesday bringing some potential for showers and storms, mainly in the west and north. Another developing longwave trough this week then moves more toward the central Plains late in the week bringing more widespread shower and storm chances Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Generally southeast to easterly winds will continue through the TAF period. Northwest Oklahoma may see some breeziness this afternoon and early evening. VFR conditions will prevail. Day && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 65 87 65 88 / 10 0 0 0 Hobart OK 67 94 67 94 / 10 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 68 94 68 95 / 10 0 0 0 Gage OK 64 93 66 93 / 10 10 10 10 Ponca City OK 64 89 65 89 / 10 0 0 0 Durant OK 65 90 67 89 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...14