Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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957 FXUS64 KOUN 210352 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1052 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Much quieter conditions are in place today as shortwave ridging ahead of our next trough is expected to limit thunderstorm development this afternoon. This trough will eject into the central plains Tuesday morning and continue to lift northeastward from there through the day. This will place much of our area under at least weak subsidence on the backside of the wave by mid to late afternoon, although height rises look minimal as the region remains within a broader scale longwave trough to the west. With a moist and unstable airmass in place, some of the models hint at early to mid afternoon convective development as capping erodes along the dryline and the trailing edge of lift with the wave moves by. This appears to be a very low probability (<20%) and activity would be fairly isolated. Large hail and damaging wind gusts would be the main concern during the afternoon as low-level winds veer, limiting the tornado potential early on. Ware && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Later Tuesday afternoon into the evening, attention will turn to a cold front that will sink slowly southward through Tuesday night. This will provide a focus for convective development, which is initially expected to occur across northeast into north- central Oklahoma, with chances then spreading southward overnight into central Oklahoma. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main hazards, with a very low tornado risk. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding will also be a concern with the potential for training of storms along the slow moving boundary. Showers and storms will likely continue into Wednesday morning, with the best chances expected to be across central and southeast portions of the area as the front continues its slow progress southward. The front is expected to stall during the day Wednesday, with continued development of thunderstorms in the vicinity of the front, with a risk for strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. The front is then expected to retreat northward and/or dissipate over the area on Thursday with pressure falls to the west inducing the return of southerly winds. This will allow moisture to surge back northward during the day, with additional chances for severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. The area will remain under modest southwest flow aloft from Friday through the weekend, and with an oscillating dryline and plenty of instability, can`t rule out at least isolated thunderstorm chances each day. Potential exists for greater thunderstorm coverage if we can get a more consolidated shortwave to move out over the area, but timing these waves is difficult at this range. Ware && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1034 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 South winds will remain gusty overnight, but even so with rather strong LLJ all sites will see LLWS after midnight. A brief period of MVFR ceilings may occur along and east of I-35 Tuesday morning before low level winds veer and VFR conditions return. Surface winds will veer as dryline shifts east Tuesday morning with winds diminishing late in the day. A cold front will move through northern Oklahoma tomorrow evening with winds shifting to the north and northeast. Rain chances remain too low to mention through 06Z tomorrow night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 90 74 92 65 / 0 0 10 30 Hobart OK 98 73 95 62 / 0 0 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 94 75 94 73 / 0 0 20 10 Gage OK 94 65 91 54 / 0 0 0 10 Ponca City OK 88 72 93 60 / 0 0 10 40 Durant OK 88 71 88 73 / 20 0 20 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....08 AVIATION...30