Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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494 FXUS64 KOUN 201948 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 248 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 248 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Slightly warmer on Friday with isolated showers/storms possible... Southeasterly flow continues to advect moisture into the area, and the 12Z OUN sounding resembles that of a tropical profile with improved, deeper moistening of the atmospheric column (up to around 500mb) compared to the observation from last evening. With abundant moisture in place widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible this evening into Friday, but chances are low (less than 20%). Clouds should lessen in coverage throughout the day tomorrow, and result in slightly warmer temperatures, with low 90`s expected for most areas and mid-90`s for the post-harvest wheat belt that extends from northwest into north- central Oklahoma. Although the NAM shows the potential for marginally severe thunderstorms across far northwest Oklahoma tomorrow evening, this model solution is an outlier. Therefore, the probability of this occurring is very low. Thompson && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 248 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Near-record breaking heat remains the main story for this weekend into the beginning of next week... A shortwave propagating quickly across the north-central plains pushes a cold front towards Oklahoma on Saturday, which unfortunately, does not reach our area. As the trough impinges on the northwest edge of the ridge, low-level flow veers ahead of the approaching front. Meanwhile, the center of the mid-level high pressure system moves westward and the H500 temperature maxima moves over Oklahoma/Texas with sunny skies for Saturday. Daytime highs will be about 5 deg higher on Saturday thanks to the downslope/diabatic/compressional heating combination. Another 4 to 5 degree jump in air temperatures occurs on Sunday with highs get progressively higher into Tuesday as the upper ridge remains situated over the southern CONUS. Rain chances have dropped to less than 10% this weekend with this forecast package. A tiny bit of good news: there is the possibility that a cool front moves into Oklahoma next Wednesday, which could bring drybulb temperatures down to the upper 90`s or close to the century mark for Wednesday and could lead to heat index values below advisory criteria on Thursday. In addition, shower/storm chances return to the area late Tuesday and Wednesday. Thompson && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Daytime heating will result in isolated to widely scattered showers mainly through 23Z-01Z, with better precip chances across southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas. An isolated thunderstorm or two is also possible. Otherwise, MVFR to VFR ceilings are expected. Lower clouds should scattered this evening, but mid to high clouds should prevail. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 72 90 73 95 / 10 10 0 0 Hobart OK 72 91 73 96 / 20 10 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 72 91 73 95 / 20 10 0 0 Gage OK 69 91 72 99 / 20 10 10 0 Ponca City OK 73 92 74 97 / 20 10 0 0 Durant OK 72 92 72 95 / 10 10 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...06